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/THREAD/Next up in my #2021PlayerBreakdowns Series is:
Teoscar Hernández, OF
Toronto #BlueJays
28 years old
Drafted: N/A Int’l FA (2011 HOU)
Let’s get started...
2020 Stat Line:
50 G
207 PA
190 AB
.289/.340/.579
16 HR
33 R
34 RBI
6 SB
.384 wOBA
146 wRC+
1.6 WAR
6.8 BB%
30.4 K%
50 G
207 PA
190 AB
.289/.340/.579
16 HR
33 R
34 RBI
6 SB
.384 wOBA
146 wRC+
1.6 WAR
6.8 BB%
30.4 K%
Teoscar Hernandez was not a premium money prospect when he was signed by Houston in 2011.
In fact, in 2015 he was left unprotected in the Rule V draft.
No one selected him.
Five years later on Nov 5, 2020, Teoscar won the Silver Slugger award.
In fact, in 2015 he was left unprotected in the Rule V draft.
No one selected him.
Five years later on Nov 5, 2020, Teoscar won the Silver Slugger award.
It was never in doubt that Teoscar had power. We have seen it.
The question right now is: Was this just another hot streak?
2020 Season extrapolated over 500 AB:
.289 42 HR 16 SB
Hernandez last 162 games:
.252 42 HR 11 SB
The question right now is: Was this just another hot streak?
2020 Season extrapolated over 500 AB:
.289 42 HR 16 SB
Hernandez last 162 games:
.252 42 HR 11 SB
As you can see, there is not a big difference between Teoscar’s actual last 162 game stat line & his 2020 season extrapolated to 500 AB.
Aside from a bit of batting avg, which we will get to.
But the big stand out for me is the SB, which people will brush aside as a fluke...
Aside from a bit of batting avg, which we will get to.
But the big stand out for me is the SB, which people will brush aside as a fluke...
Don’t.
If you take a look at Teoscar’s MLB totals in SB you will see these numbers in order: 0, 0, 5, 6, 6
Not impressive.
But what if I told you that in the minors he swiped 24, 33, and 34 over three consecutive years?
In 2019 his speed ranked in the 94th % of the league.
If you take a look at Teoscar’s MLB totals in SB you will see these numbers in order: 0, 0, 5, 6, 6
Not impressive.
But what if I told you that in the minors he swiped 24, 33, and 34 over three consecutive years?
In 2019 his speed ranked in the 94th % of the league.
Let’s compare Hernandez to some of the leagues prominent base stealers in Sprint Speed:
Starling Marte 29.4 ft/sec
Mookie Betts 29.3 ft/sec
Teoscar Hernandez 29.3 ft/sec
Tommy Pham 28.2 ft/sec
Jose Ramirez 27.2 ft/sec
That’s right. Teoscar is FAST
Starling Marte 29.4 ft/sec
Mookie Betts 29.3 ft/sec
Teoscar Hernandez 29.3 ft/sec
Tommy Pham 28.2 ft/sec
Jose Ramirez 27.2 ft/sec
That’s right. Teoscar is FAST
The wild card in this scenario is opportunity.
In 2018 the Blue Jays gave Teoscar the green light 10 times (converted 5) and just 9 times in 2019 (converted 6).
So are we to believe that him getting 7 opp last season in less than 1/2 the PA is a sign of things to come?
In 2018 the Blue Jays gave Teoscar the green light 10 times (converted 5) and just 9 times in 2019 (converted 6).
So are we to believe that him getting 7 opp last season in less than 1/2 the PA is a sign of things to come?
2020 Batted Ball Profile:
LD - 25.8%
GB - 35.9%
FB - 38.3%
Pull - 35.9%
Middle - 42.2%
Opp - 21.9%
Hard Contact - 48.8%
Med Contact - 39.5%
Soft Contact - 11.6%
Exit Velocity - 93.3 mph
Max EV - 115.9 mph
Barrel % - 18.0
Launch Angle - 15.3
sd(LA) - 24.1
LD - 25.8%
GB - 35.9%
FB - 38.3%
Pull - 35.9%
Middle - 42.2%
Opp - 21.9%
Hard Contact - 48.8%
Med Contact - 39.5%
Soft Contact - 11.6%
Exit Velocity - 93.3 mph
Max EV - 115.9 mph
Barrel % - 18.0
Launch Angle - 15.3
sd(LA) - 24.1
It was only 60 games. We know this.
But Teoscar improved in almost every critical area for a power hitter.
Barrel% 11.7 —> 18.1
Max EV 112.1 —> 115.9
sd(LA) 29.9 —> 24.1
Hit the ball harder, on the barrel, more consistently.
This explains the nice shift in both GB% & LD%
But Teoscar improved in almost every critical area for a power hitter.
Barrel% 11.7 —> 18.1
Max EV 112.1 —> 115.9
sd(LA) 29.9 —> 24.1
Hit the ball harder, on the barrel, more consistently.
This explains the nice shift in both GB% & LD%
In addition to consistent contact, Teoscar was able to make better use of the entire field.
Typically a pull heavy hitter, Teo increased base hits to center from 29.1% to 42.2% (decreasing Pull% 48.7 to 35.9)
This is important due to opposing defenses attempting to shift.
Typically a pull heavy hitter, Teo increased base hits to center from 29.1% to 42.2% (decreasing Pull% 48.7 to 35.9)
This is important due to opposing defenses attempting to shift.
So far we have discussed Teoscar’s upside or improvement in:
- Sprint Speed
- Hard Contact
- Line Drive%
- Bat Control
Does anyone know what these parameters are important for?
Maintaining a higher BABIP!
- Sprint Speed
- Hard Contact
- Line Drive%
- Bat Control
Does anyone know what these parameters are important for?
Maintaining a higher BABIP!
Why are we so interested in BABIP?
Teoscar batted .289 in 2020 after hitting in the .230’s in each of the two previous seasons.
2018: .239 (.313 BABIP)
2019: .230 (.293 BABIP)
2020: .289 (.348 BABIP)
The easy analysis would be: regression is coming!
And it probably is. But...
Teoscar batted .289 in 2020 after hitting in the .230’s in each of the two previous seasons.
2018: .239 (.313 BABIP)
2019: .230 (.293 BABIP)
2020: .289 (.348 BABIP)
The easy analysis would be: regression is coming!
And it probably is. But...
It’s unlikely Teoscar became a .289 hitter overnight. Right?
Let’s talk about xBA (expected batting average) for a second.
xBA is based on how often comparable balls -- in terms of EV, LA &, on certain types of batted balls, Sprint Speed
It also normalizes BABIP.
Let’s talk about xBA (expected batting average) for a second.
xBA is based on how often comparable balls -- in terms of EV, LA &, on certain types of batted balls, Sprint Speed
It also normalizes BABIP.
Teoscar’s xBA for 2020 was .295
So for anyone wanting to just throw his batting avg breakout in the trash, not so fast.
He made meaningful strides to outperform his career BABIP that are legitimate AND sustainable.
The only issue?
It was a 60 game sample size.
So for anyone wanting to just throw his batting avg breakout in the trash, not so fast.
He made meaningful strides to outperform his career BABIP that are legitimate AND sustainable.
The only issue?
It was a 60 game sample size.
So was this simply a hot streak or something we can expect to continue?
For this we gotta travel back to the 2019 season when Teoscar was hitting: .189/.262/.299 w/ a 49 wRC+
It was on this day that he was demoted to the minor leagues.
For this we gotta travel back to the 2019 season when Teoscar was hitting: .189/.262/.299 w/ a 49 wRC+
It was on this day that he was demoted to the minor leagues.
Teoscar was quoted by the Toronto Star:
“I was trying to do too much. When you try to do too much, things don’t go the way you want... I concentrated on doing simple things, not thinking too much. Simple mechanics. See the ball, hit the ball.’’
So he made a simple change.
“I was trying to do too much. When you try to do too much, things don’t go the way you want... I concentrated on doing simple things, not thinking too much. Simple mechanics. See the ball, hit the ball.’’
So he made a simple change.
While in Triple A, Teoscar altered his mechanics to have quieter hands in the box, less movement, while holding them closer to his body.
This resulted in superior bat control & a promotion back to the majors, where he batted .261/.320/.609 w/ a 140 wRC+
This resulted in superior bat control & a promotion back to the majors, where he batted .261/.320/.609 w/ a 140 wRC+
Below is a split screen (animation created by @Mike_Kurland) that gives a good POV of his quieter hands at the plate.
These changes Hernández made in 2019 while in AAA could be the key for his breakout to become a sustained success.
These changes Hernández made in 2019 while in AAA could be the key for his breakout to become a sustained success.
Time for some slightly cold water.
2020 Plate Discipline:
SwStr: 15.7%
Contact: 66.2%
Swing: 46.4%
O-Swing: 34.3%
Z-Swing: 63.7%
O-Contact: 52.1%
Z-Contact: 76.9%
So...Teoscar swings at too many pitches out of the strike zone & makes poor contact.
Terrific.
2020 Plate Discipline:
SwStr: 15.7%
Contact: 66.2%
Swing: 46.4%
O-Swing: 34.3%
Z-Swing: 63.7%
O-Contact: 52.1%
Z-Contact: 76.9%
So...Teoscar swings at too many pitches out of the strike zone & makes poor contact.
Terrific.
However, if you look at what part of the zone Teoscar seems to struggle with vs where most of his power comes from, you can see improvement (better decisions from 2019 to 2020)
Below you can see that he cut down on chasing low pitches, many away, that he could not put it play.
Below you can see that he cut down on chasing low pitches, many away, that he could not put it play.
Instead, Teoscar seemed to expand the zone high & away. Two places he seems to excel in both power & avg.
He still K’s too much, mostly low, but there are some encouraging signs here
But either way, poor plate discipline = slumps. Over 162 games he will likely find one
He still K’s too much, mostly low, but there are some encouraging signs here
But either way, poor plate discipline = slumps. Over 162 games he will likely find one
Overall, we have a talented player w/ power & speed who (w/ a mechanical adjustment) enjoyed sustained success.
It may be tough to gamble on a 60-game season, but if you add in his 2nd half from 2019 it tends to stick more
Teoscar may not hit .280, but his ceiling is intriguing
It may be tough to gamble on a 60-game season, but if you add in his 2nd half from 2019 it tends to stick more
Teoscar may not hit .280, but his ceiling is intriguing
What to expect from Teoscar Hernández in 2021:
550 AB
.265/.335/.475
35 HR
83 R
92 RBI
10 SB
The range of outcomes is not as wide as you may think. If healthy, I expect Teoscar to build on his breakout.
The avg could be volitle, but the speed may take off. Possibilities
550 AB
.265/.335/.475
35 HR
83 R
92 RBI
10 SB
The range of outcomes is not as wide as you may think. If healthy, I expect Teoscar to build on his breakout.
The avg could be volitle, but the speed may take off. Possibilities
