First the European 'Research' Group. Now the Covid 'Recovery' Group.

A quick thread on why their ideas appeal, and why they are dangerous. 1/

They appeal because they tell people what they want to hear. They propose simple solutions which people want to be true (h/t @rolandmcs).

[There's a cartoon to insert here of people choosing the easy path and falling off a cliff, which I can't find!] 2/

In relation to Brexit, they say that the UK (as a sovereign state) should have regulatory freedom. Also, it should (as now) have access to European markets. And (again as now) there is no need for hard borders, unless of course they are forced on us by 'the other side'. 3/

The position is absurd, as many have been trying to explain for years. @jonworth said it all very well (again) yesterday.
https://jonworth.eu/the-internal-market-bill-and-brexiters-still-unable-to-face-the-brexit-trilemma/ 4/

But, there is no denying that it has appeal. It would be great if it were true. It would be great if one could, against all the odds, have one's cake and eat it too. Maybe if you just believe hard enough? 5/

On Covid, I know a lot less than I do about Brexit. That may or may not be true for members of the ERG and CRG. Given that I know less, I can perhaps more easily recognise the appeal of the CRG message. 6/

What if the effects of Covid are exaggerated? What if lockdowns, restrictions, etc don't work? What if the disease will simply pass, and we can live normally? What if the population will acquire herd immunity?

Wouldn't that be great? 7/

From everything which I've read since March, that seems vanishingly unlikely. The disease is real. It spreads very quickly. It has killed many people. Uncontrolled, it looks like it will kill many more. 8/

What is needed is an approach which controls the virus, and at the same time allows the economy and society to function. Some restrictions are here to stay (at least until the vaccine can be shown to work, and at scale). 9/

A working test, trace and isolate system seems to be essential.

And we don't (yet...) have one. 10/

The approach of the ERG and the CRG is to belittle problems, to wish them away, and then to rage against sacrifices or constraints which others say are necessary. 11/

Pretending that a real problem does not exist does not solve it. Planning, and hard work, and coordination, is needed to mitigate the damage of both Brexit and Covid. 12/

The ERG/CRG, by belittling the problem, not only fail to make a contribution; they also stand in the way of those who are. They skew the debate in dangerous ways. 13/

They have significant power in the Tory Party, and huge influence over the Govt. They have a message which resonates with what people want to hear.

But instead of solutions, they only offer false hope. 14/14