1/ The @VSB39 is working on a Long Range Facilities Plan that uses a "school enrolment" planning methodology. When you dive into it, you realize that this has nothing to do with "Where Kids Live & Will Live." Oddly, "school enrolment" does not even factor catchment waitlists.

2/ @VanDPAC is working with Trustees towards a foundation for a LRFP that incorporates "Where Kids Live & Will Live" as a planning methodology. Summary to: [ @awong39 @janetrfraser @estiemgonzalez @reddyforchange @fishtron @bard1952 @CarmenCho17 @OliverHanson @Frasergb] in image.

3/ Also very important to use "Where Kids Live & Will Live" as this is aligned with the value of "Complete Communities" that will underpin @CityofVancouver's Vancouver Plan & is totally the right thing to do if we truly care about Equity, Fairness, Sustainability & Safe Routes.

4/ There's really smart staff at the VSB and if Vancouver was not changing, then "school enrolment" would be just fine as it takes into account:

1. Birth Forecasts for CoV & UEL
2. Child Benefit for base 1-17 by catchment
3. Net-Migration: historical grade level changes

5/ But Vancouver is changing & "net-migration" can not handle:

1. New developments on previously undeveloped land.
2. New multi-residential dev in existing neighbourhoods in areas that have had limited redevelopment in the past 3. New affordable and social housing initiatives.

6/ Let us dive into one of Vancouver's many areas where "school enrolment" is not going to work & where changes will take place within the 10 year planning cycle that the VSB 2020 LRFP will cover. #vanre

1. OTC (old bus yard)
2. Heather Lands
3. Oakridge Mall
4 Little Mountain

7/ We will use the Heather Lands as our "home base." This 2,612 home development is being developed by @MSTdevelopment, ( @musqueam, @SquamishNation & @tsleilwaututh) and will have significant number of 2&3 bed homes + 540 units of social housing. https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/heather-lands-4949-5255-heather-street-vancouver

8/ In Feb 2020, 641 Kindergarten kids applied for 540 spots. Over by 81! 10 kids self selected other schools. 71 were on the waitlist & had to get "placed." This is incredibly frustrating to parents & to the VSB. Everyone is looking forward to see how the 2020 LRFP solves this.

9/ Using image/data by @vb_jens: Here's the historical change from 2009 to 2018 in the number of 5-9 kids across the city. Zooming into the Heather Lands area, overall flat so this is why historically, "school enrolment" has worked.

It will not work for the future.

10/ For our analysis, we use *current* capacity from the 2019 Draft LRFP & Feb 2020 Kindergarten registration data so the following is not a projection.

As we explore walking options from Heather Lands to schools, consider the value that we place on Safe Routes @saferoutesvan

11/ Jamieson Elem is the catchment school for the Heather Lands. It's at 100% capacity today. It has a Kindergarten draw (aka lottery) and turns away kids that currently live in the area. @Jamieson_School

12/ Emily Carr Elem is the closest school to the Heather Lands. It had 2 portables added a few years back to intake more Kindergarten kids (4o to 60) & now all those 60 spots are "Full" (has a draw and turns away kids.) Current capacity at 109%.

13/ General Wolfe Elem is at 106% of capacity but has some available Kindergarten spots. However, the school is undergoing seismic upgrade so is "re-located" to the South Hill site at Fraser & 44th until that work is done.

Aside: Upgrading a 110yr old =Should be a New

14/ Cavell Elem at 119% capacity & turns away "K" kids. Has portables. Plans call for a both seismic upgrade & expansion. @GeorgeHeyman will forever be justifying why kids should suffer twice, taxpayers should pay more & why 100yr is not a new bigger build @markalanfriesen

15/ Osler Elem turns away Kindergarten Kids but is one of the rare schools at 84% of capacity. While in this area's context that will seem low, ask what should our school capacity be at. What value do we place on resiliency?

16/ Van Horne Elem had 58 catchment "K" Kids register for 60 "K" spots so approaching a redline situation. It's overall capacity is at 87%.

Henderson Elem's catchment touches Van Horne's & was part of a "Study Area". All the more reason to use "Where Kids Live & Will Live."

17/ Brock Elem had 37 catchment "K" Kids register for 40 "K" spots in Feb 2020. Mysteriously, the school capacity is at a mere 57%. Requires it's own study into how spaces are uses as capacity utilization is based on the original blueprints of the classrooms. Any info @Brock_vsb?

18/ Shaughnessy Elem is an "overflow" school. "Overflow Schools" will become more prevalent across many areas; in VSB language it means that it is essential to serve the overflowing nearby schools. Only 37 "K" Kids registered for 60 spots. School at 97% capacity overall.

19/ Quilchena Elem had exactly 20 "K" Kids register for 20 "K" spots in Feb 2020. It's overall capacity is at 123%.

Obviously, we are now getting far outside the realm of "Complete Communities" & Safe Routes. Walking across Oak & Granville Streets in rush hour is not feasible.

20/ Livingstone Elem had 50 "K" Kids register for 60 spots & at 101% of capacity.

Is walking realistic?

Qs inspired by @andrea_coutu:

"K" Child walking alone (against rules)? Is a parent coming? Younger siblings? Do the siblings need to get to childcare?

A: Most will

21/ Fraser Elem had an incredible 115 "K" kids register for 40 spots. Catchment includes Olympic Village ( @school_olympic) & even with promised OV school ( # #bcelxn2020 & @BrendaBaileyBC & @GeorgeHeyman) Fraser Elem will be full. Now running at 159% capacity with 4 portables.

22/ Maple Grove Elem concludes this area analysis. It had 59 "K" Kids register for 40 "K" spots, held a draw & turned away kids. School at 97% capacity.

[Aside: New seismic replacement Maple Grove ready soon & Cavell going to use old while Cavell gets seismic upgrade.]

23/ Zooming out: Across the City, 3,751 Kindergarten kids registered for 3,977 Kindergarten spots; that’s 94% of the spots taken!

1. 615 more catchment kids than spots in 35 (too many local kids)

2. 341 catchment spots not registered for in 31 (too few local kids)

24/ The @VSB39 2020 LRFP will determine how families come to view @CityofVancouver as a place to raise their kids. There is massive concern that the LRFP will persist in using "school enrolment" and not "where kids live & will live" which will not work. #vanpoli #vanre

25/ @awong39; As Chair of Facilities Committee & as you enter your 22nd year as a Trustee [], do you think it is finally time to use "Where Kids Live & Will Live" in this Jan 2020 LRFP?

Yes, to passing a LRFP this Jan. No, to passing the wrong one. @VanDPAC position in image.

26/ @estiemgonzalez: As a Trustee that cares passionately about the environment, how can you justify using "school enrolment" as the planning method & what would you tell Lucy about how the 2020 LRFP aligns w/ Transportation 2040 goals & reduces driving? https://twitter.com/Lucyincanada/status/1326657644443041792

27/ @Frasergb: As a 4 term Trustee, you have seen a few LRFP movies. I have no clue where you stand or your position but sure hope you think critically about the future of our city. This movie is different & the flexibility of the new Ministry LRFP guidelines need to be included.

28/ @OliverHanson: As a Trustee & lawyer, your view on governance matters. @VanDPAC sees the "Study Concepts" as the dynamic part of the LRFP. Our feedback was to add "and Board" to the Identify Study Concepts. It was never discussed. Can you call for more process & discussion?

29/ @fishtron: As proud east-side Trustee that cares about environment & equity, how will the 2020 LRFP "codify" sustainability & equity? Thanksfor taking initiative to reach out to @bcedplan to see if LRFP can just backup 5yr cap plan & for checking into the LRFP assumptions.

30/ @bard1952: As the Trustee that seems to know the Robert's Rules better than Robert & with your deep understanding of systemic barriers & care for equity, can you create some motions for Nov 30 Board Meeting using core values so a de-scoped interim LRFP is passed in Jan?

31/ @CarmenCho17: As the Vice-Chair & liaison to @VanDPAC, can you answer: Why do Trustees seem it's OK to pass a "school enrolment" LRFP as it can be changed later? Could it result in decisions we would not make if "Where Kids Live & Will Live" was used? interim solution?

32/ @reddyforchange: As a Trustee you are passionate on so many aspects that truly matter, Transparency being one; Consultation here is lacking. You had tabled a motion calling to release the draft 2020 LRFP in Dec so public can offer input. Please repeat that motion on Nov 30?