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Data thread on JPN attitudes towards Trump, building off @PhillipLipscy's discussion. This builds on a survey experiment (Sep2018) w/ @AdamPLiff & @APInitiative, on the liberal international order.
TL;DR: Trump wasn't popular; conservatives like him; older people don't
(1/9)
TL;DR: Trump wasn't popular; conservatives like him; older people don't
(1/9)
We asked respondents for their affinity to various countries and leaders (0-10 scale). I won't talk about the experiment here, but will show associational relationships. More on the experiment in the book (in both JPN and Eng) https://apinitiative.org/books/ (2/9)
First, some descriptive data.
Trump rates poorly, even as support for the US is pretty high. In fact, the gap between support for country vs. leader is greatest for US. (3/9)
Trump rates poorly, even as support for the US is pretty high. In fact, the gap between support for country vs. leader is greatest for US. (3/9)
Now, some regression plots (coefficients / 95%CI)
First, I estimated affinity for Trump separately for men/women. Coefficients are pretty similar, but:
1) older respondents dislike T quite a bit
2) trust in internet media raises support (but correlated with age)
(4/9)
First, I estimated affinity for Trump separately for men/women. Coefficients are pretty similar, but:
1) older respondents dislike T quite a bit
2) trust in internet media raises support (but correlated with age)
(4/9)
Second, what about affinity for Trump vs. affinity for USA?
1) LDP, Komei, Ishin partisans like both
2) Women given lower ratings than men on both
3) Main difference is age: negative for T, but flat for the US
(5/9)
1) LDP, Komei, Ishin partisans like both
2) Women given lower ratings than men on both
3) Main difference is age: negative for T, but flat for the US
(5/9)
Slightly different question: affinity for Trump vs. importance of US as ally.
Here, age differences are more notable: older = more likely to value US, even as they dislike Trump. (6/9)
Here, age differences are more notable: older = more likely to value US, even as they dislike Trump. (6/9)
By the way, it's not that older people dislike (foreign) leaders.
On affinity towards Trump vs. Xi Jinping, age patterns are similar, although Party ID breaks differently.
For example, Ishin supporters dislike Xi as much as CDP supporters dislike Trump. (7/9)
On affinity towards Trump vs. Xi Jinping, age patterns are similar, although Party ID breaks differently.
For example, Ishin supporters dislike Xi as much as CDP supporters dislike Trump. (7/9)
Between Trump and Angela Merkel, however, age goes in opposite directions. Progressives and conservatives also have clear differences.
For both Xi and Merkel, gender differences are minimal. (8/9)
For both Xi and Merkel, gender differences are minimal. (8/9)
Summary: as of 2 years ago, I don't see a lot of evidence that Trump was actually "popular".
That said, there are notable divisions by age, gender, and media trust, re: @atonton28's work, which would need to be teased out more carefully. (9/9)
That said, there are notable divisions by age, gender, and media trust, re: @atonton28's work, which would need to be teased out more carefully. (9/9)
