My short, broad-strokes thoughts to @SadaJournal about the likely policy of a Biden administration toward the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and whether the normalization agreements would feature in them. https://carnegieendowment.org/sada/83187#Zalzberg

Biden will likely seek a gradual, bipartisan policy shift on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. This would help him limit friction with Israel mostly on the Iranian question and maintain some Republican support despite resetting U.S.-PLO relations by reversing Trump policies.

Biden will probably set modest goals, cognizant of the deep disagreements b/t Israel and Palestinians and intuitively averse to clashing with Israel. Given peak polarization in the U.S. and likely Republican control of Senate, Biden will require some level of bipartisan support.

Regarding the conflict, this means avoiding unnecessary clashes, particularly by avoiding premature final status negotiations. Biden might focus instead on improving conditions on the ground while gradually narrowing political differences between the conflict parties.

If Trump generated any momentum on which Biden could build, it is Arab-Israeli rapprochement. Biden could advance it in a piecemeal fashion, with every Arab-Israeli step linked to Israeli-Palestinian progress toward a two-state reality (<> a comprehensive two-state solution).

Palestinian leaders would have to decide whether middle-of-the-road policies, like placing more territory under PA rule, opening Palestinian institutions in East Jerusalem, and connecting Gaza and the West Bank, justify their backing.

Such Palestinian support could shield Arab governments from accusations of betraying the Palestinian cause or the al-Aqsa Mosque, thus opening hitherto closed avenues in the Arab world.

The Abraham Accords demonstrated the potent benefits of engaging religious & cultural traditions. Most notable is the bold shift of Evangelical members of Congress and the Netanyahu government from promoting Israeli annexation of West Bank areas to supporting Arab-Israeli peace.

A Biden policy framed as building on this thrust might have uniquely broad basis for advancing two-state reality. This will require putting forward an agenda featuring enough of Trump’s policy to secure Republican & Israeli backing and enough change to elicit Palestinian support.