1/ On 17th Nov, $UNI farming will end.

Right now ~$2.3bn funds are deployed farming UNI, with $ETH being the reference token.

This means that there is currently ~$1.1bn ETH locked up, about to be released into the wild.

Where do you think that ETH will go?

2/ Whilst a large portion of current TVL will stay in the same pools (fees generated are juicy), I posit a reasonable amount of ETH will leave the Uniswap system in search of higher yields.

Nobody knows numbers at this point but 50% of TVL leaving may be within reason.

3/ If this holds true, ~$500mm ETH will be on the market. They can:

A): Stake elsewhere ($SUSHI/$ALPHA/ETH 2.0 etc)
B): Remain in holder wallets (unlikely)
C): Be sold for stables / altcoins

I believe a large chunk of it will be sold. Why?

4/ The day before the UNI farming program began, $ETH went from $365 - $389 (6.6% increase)

Commercial farmers loaded up on ETH to capitalize on UNI rewards and when they end, it is likely these farmers will offload their ETH as well.

5/ Furthermore the narrative for alt season returning increases the attractiveness of risk-on behavior.

This leads me to believe that ST selling pressure for ETH will remain high.

6/ Interestingly enough the end of UNI farming does alleviate considerable sell side pressure for $UNI.

We also gain a better understanding of Uniswap's core value proposition (How much of Uniswap TVL is real and not boosted by UNI subsidies)

7/ Of course all this is contingent on Uniswap ending their liquidity mining program on 17th Nov, which has not yet been confirmed.

A Uniswap governance call on 12 Nov will be held to discuss its implementation: https://gov.uniswap.org/t/announcement-unofficial-community-call-thursday-12-nov-17-00-utc/8371