I would be genuinely curious to have a conversation around exactly what kinds of metrics we are aiming for with renewed lockdowns

A lot of the time they feel like "well... this *has* to work because I can't imagine it *not* working"

There are very few actual hard targets that have held up well over the long term with COVID numbers.

We do a lot of apples to oranges comparisons, trying to compare NY in March against Florida in July against Wisconsin in Sept

But these are all different scenarios

I end up arguing with people about what is "good" vs what is "bad", but it's all either theoretical or "look, surely taking such-and-such a precaution can't *hurt*"

What I want to know is the actual extent to which it helps. Like... a percentage. That is thin on the ground.