Thread - I’ve seen some speculation over the possibility of Rep. Nancy Pelosi not being re-elected Speaker of the House in the 117th Congress. Although she is favored, here’s what would need to happen for her to go down:

The @HouseGOP would need to hit their absolute ceiling - which I’ve concluded to be 215 seats, for any possibility of Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-Cali.) being named Speaker.

I predict Republicans will win 213 seats when all is said and done with this race.

Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas), Rep. Conor Lamb (D-Pennsylvania), and Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D-Virginia)-or some other moderate Dems-would have to be convinced not to vote for Pelosi.

The GOP is threatening to redraw Cuellar’s seat and a far left Dem is ready to primary him.

While I don’t see McCarthy getting the votes he needs to be Speaker, I can see the “squad” ganging up on her-specifically Rep.-elect Bush (D-MO), Rep.-elect Newman (D-IL), and other new progressive leftists.

So there is a chance we have a new House speaker come January. @RepJeffries, a close Pelosi ally, is probably the next in line if they have the votes to beat her.

As far as moderate Ds go: the @HouseGOP took a good amount of them out during Tuesday’s election. The only thing Cuellar can do is pull a JVD or go down with the ship. If I were him, I’d ask for Homeland Sec. Chairmanship in exchange for a party switch.

Also-Rep. Jared Golden (D-Maine) voted against @SpeakerPelosi in 2019. Let’s see if he does it again.

^ as per @RepGolden - also recall he voted against impeaching Trump on one charge, and just won re-election by a closer-than-expected margin against a very poorly funded, unknown challenger. Perhaps voting McCarthy for Speaker saves him in 2022.