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(1 of 11) Threat on #UAE #Arms #F35 #drone sales. Time for a brief description of how the Foreign Military Sales (FMS) system works and some analysis:
First, here’s the announcement for the drones: https://www.dsca.mil/press-media/major-arms-sales/united-arab-emirates-mq-9b-remotely-piloted-aircraft
First, here’s the announcement for the drones: https://www.dsca.mil/press-media/major-arms-sales/united-arab-emirates-mq-9b-remotely-piloted-aircraft
(2 of 11) Second, here’s the announcement for the aircraft: https://www.dsca.mil/press-media/major-arms-sales/united-arab-emirates-f-35-joint-strike-fighter
Third, there’s also a major case for air to ground munitions here: https://www.dsca.mil/press-media/major-arms-sales/united-arab-emirates-munitions-sustainment-and-support-0
Third, there’s also a major case for air to ground munitions here: https://www.dsca.mil/press-media/major-arms-sales/united-arab-emirates-munitions-sustainment-and-support-0
(3 of 11) Total value of all cases if executed is $24.37 Billion. This is smaller than the 2011 Saudi F-15 upgrade case, but is certainly in the top ten of FMS cases. The dollar limit is a hard one, and the offers come with time limits.
(4 of 11) What's missing? In the original announcement of the sale (which was at the start of the informal notification to Congress, and which provoked defeated @RepEliotEngel to propose this: https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/8707 ) the package was to include electronic warfare aircraft.
(5 of 11) The fact EW aircraft are not in this package hints the US was not willing to release the technology desired by the UAE. Electronic warfare is a key component of America’s technological military edge, and releases of EW equipment go through a lengthy security review.
(6 of 11) Some systems and capabilities are not released to our closest partners and allies because compromise would degrade a key US capability. That appears to be the case here. So there is not an entirely blank check from @realDonaldTrump to #UAE
(7 of 11) Some have speculated that the Administration may use a declaration of an #Emergency to push the case through, perhaps to announce the offer on the #UAE National Day (Dec 2). I think this is unlikely.
(8 of 11) Under the FMS system, Admin is required to formally notify #Congress 30 calendar days before presenting the offer to the Emiratis. If Congress passes a joint resolution of disapproval, the sale will not go forward.
(9 of 11) This means that opponents of the sale (with only 11 working days between now and December 9) must get a veto-proof majority in both the House and the #Senate. If the ( @GOP) leader of the Senate simply refuses to schedule a vote, the sale will go forward.
(10 of 11) #Israel Qualitative Military Edge ( #QME) is a very real concern, but appears that the US gift of significant hardware to Israel has assuaged those concerns. This is a (by now) practiced dance: Israel raises concerns, gets equipment from the US, and then acquiesces.
(11 of 11) This is a rather byzantine process for selling #weapons , and is not entirely run by common sense. Indeed – in contrast to our European partners -- the aim of the US FMS system is actually to control, not promote arms sales. Hope this helps.
