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I haven't tweeted much about NC since Election Night, but with Cunningham conceding today let's take a look in at what's going on there
As far as I can tell, there are not nearly enough provisional and absentee ballots left for Ds to have a credible chance of making up their deficit.
Biden's down 75k votes; but there are 40k provisionals (won't all count) and maybe another 35k absentee ballots. Doesn't add up.
Biden's down 75k votes; but there are 40k provisionals (won't all count) and maybe another 35k absentee ballots. Doesn't add up.
I do have pause about one thing, though, and I wonder whether it's a factor for any of the decision desks: some of the oddities in the results that I was tweeting about on Election Night
If you can even remember back then, the needle had to figure out how to quarantine what seemed like some bad data out of a few counties. A week later, some of those hangups are still there--and I'm not quite sure what to make of them
To take one example that could help Democrats: I don't really understand why there aren't ~10k more early votes in Orange County (Chapel Hill). There are about 40k, but the absentee file--as I interpret it, and maybe I messed up--suggests there should be 50k
IDK if that's true, but it sure seems to me like Edison Research's vote left estimate thinks the same thing
Anyway, even this wouldn't get you to a Biden victory! He needs a lot more than an extra 10k. But I do wonder whether these oddities have created an extra degree of caution beyond the outstanding raw provisionals / late absentees, which just don't add up to a credible case for Ds
The state absentee file provides an account of people who actually voted--by my count, 50.5k actually voted early in Orange County. It shouldn't be subject to any uncertainty about turnout--though I could have messed up! https://twitter.com/cnkirch1215/status/1326282675729141763?s=20
