While waiting for @epdevilla's 4 p.m. newser, I dug into Toronto's COVID-19 neighbourhood maps. Found some interesting trends that might tell us something about whether closing bars and restaurants helped. Thread.

In September, places reporting the most new cases were condo neighbourhoods near downtown. The cases were primarily among 20-somethings. (We know this age breakdown thanks to @hichenwang's analysis of the city's open database.)

Examples: Waterfront Communities reported 149 cases, the most in the city, in the three weeks leading up to Sept. 28. Niagara (Liberty Village) with 85 cases, was next. In the last 3 weeks Waterfront has just 32 cases, Niagara 21.

Now, all those numbers reflect where positive cases live, not where they caught the virus. So we can't say for certain what role the "modified stage 2" closures, which kicked in Oct. 10, played in these trends. But it's something to think about.

So where is the spike happening now? Big surge in North Scarborough. Huge change in Thorncliffe Park. That neighbourhood reported 97 cases in the last three weeks, up from just three cases in three weeks in late September. Continuing high case counts in northwest Toronto.