THREAD

UNDERSTANDING TRUMP’S COUP STRATEGY

Although everything currently unfolding has been predicted far in advance, denialism continues to flourish. Many people are drawing incorrect conclusions with regard to Trump’s strategies and discounting the crisis before us.

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But now, more than ever, we need a clearsighted approach to defeat Trump.

This thread is meant to clear up key questions and to highlight crucial strategic considerations at play.

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Let’s first be clear about the two distinct but interrelated problems facing our country: (1) a potentially successful coup by Trump and (2) the risk of civil conflict. I will address each of these issues in turn.

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Fundamentally, we knew in advance that we could never rely on the election alone to resolve our nation’s crisis.

Now that we are faced with Trump’s coup, we must understand his motives and tactics so that we can execute an effective response.

4/ https://twitter.com/1JoshGreenberg/status/1295472535597993989
In short, Trump’s approach to the coup operates in two separate but synergistic realms: the legal sphere and the public sphere.

His primary goals are to delay, to destroy, and to sow doubt. He is NOT necessarily playing to win in court.

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Therefore, those writing off Trump—exclaiming with great confidence that his legal arguments will flop—are missing the boat.

6/ https://twitter.com/1JoshGreenberg/status/1308494040023916557
In fact, by assuming that Trump will be bound by the normal rules of judicial procedures and evidentiary standards, many analysts continue to make the fatal mistake of treating Trump from a paradigm of rationality.

7/ https://twitter.com/1JoshGreenberg/status/1285668771294842882
This faulty assumption sets us up for danger—for Trump is operating in an entirely different universe.

The failure to recognize this fact, and to pursue comprehensive strategy in response to his universe, has helped lead to our predicament today.

8/ https://twitter.com/1JoshGreenberg/status/1286767494754177024
Notably, one of Trump’s fundamental goals has always been to destroy. He seeks to destroy our governing institutions, including our electoral processes, so that they no longer credibly vest power in our leaders.

9/ https://twitter.com/1JoshGreenberg/status/1288920754508177409
This point must be emphasized: Trump does not care about any of our institutions.

Those who continue to suggest that he will abide by them are only taking our country further down a delusional path.

10/ https://twitter.com/1JoshGreenberg/status/1288920650858532865
More specifically, in the legal sphere, Trump only needs to delay the process of state certification of vote counts long enough to disrupt the meeting of the Electoral College.

11/ https://www.newsweek.com/how-trump-could-lose-election-still-remain-president-opinion-1513975
How Trump could lose the election—and still remain president | Opinion

It's possible only a "people's firewall" can prevent President Donald Trump from bringing "The Plot Against America" to life.

https://www.newsweek.com/how-trump-could-lose-election-still-remain-president-opinion-1513975
Then, the election will be booted to the House of Representatives, where Republicans control a majority of state delegations.

12/ https://www.newsweek.com/how-trump-could-lose-election-still-remain-president-opinion-1513975
How Trump could lose the election—and still remain president | Opinion

It's possible only a "people's firewall" can prevent President Donald Trump from bringing "The Plot Against America" to life.

https://www.newsweek.com/how-trump-could-lose-election-still-remain-president-opinion-1513975
In the public sphere—which has always been more important to Trump—he only needs to win in the eyes of his supporters. His disinformation campaign is therefore intended to further brainwash his followers.

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His chokehold on rightwing popular opinion will in turn help to incapacitate members of the GOP from defecting—because doing so would be political suicide.

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Many people have been writing off the attempted coup as a mere financial scheme or temper tantrum. The truth is that there are multiple motives and interests involved—but that is no reason to discount the fact that seizing power is absolutely a core objective.

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When a political party lines up behind an autocrat, an attorney general authorizes investigations of voter fraud, and a defeated leader replaces the Secretary of Defense shortly after an election, the ruler is not having a mere temper tantrum.

16/ https://twitter.com/1JoshGreenberg/status/1321926097324236800
Taken together, all of the foregoing realities mean that relying on legal strategies alone in our response to the coup is likely to be grossly insufficient in the face of Trump’s assault on our system of government.

17/ https://twitter.com/1JoshGreenberg/status/1290377043503468545
Yet, denialism has largely continued unabated, in precise accordance with prediction—even as four years have shown us that Trump is much savvier politically than many people ever expected.

18/ https://twitter.com/1JoshGreenberg/status/1298687023658803200
In the end, Trump’s coup may or may not succeed. But the debate over his prospects is not the main point—because, either way, his attempt will be horribly damaging. So rather than debate the matter, the more productive course of action is simply to resist the assault.

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Moreover, even if Trump’s coup fails, the more perilous prospect is that his very attempt at a coup will be the ultimate spark for civil conflict.

20/ https://twitter.com/1JoshGreenberg/status/1325885024315576320
Therefore, with each day that passes, our denialism becomes more and more dangerous.

21/ https://twitter.com/1JoshGreenberg/status/1285668775140954113
Our failure of imagination, rooted in the myth of American exceptionalism, has helped make a violent eventuality a major possibility.

22/ https://twitter.com/1JoshGreenberg/status/1290377057105588224
Based on current events, along with an abundance of evidence from the past four years, we have no objective reason to expect a peaceful transition of power from Trump.

23/ https://twitter.com/1JoshGreenberg/status/1290377059135619072
If we want any hope of escaping this crisis or mitigating its damage, we must finally come to terms with all of these realities.

We have only ONE CHANCE to get this right. It is only prudent to err on the side of caution and to be prepared for the worst-case scenario.

24/END
Many people have asked the question, “What can we do?”

For a long time, I have been posting about strategy and about constructive steps we can all take to resist the assault on humanity and on our government.

Let me encapsulate everything into FOURTEEN KEY ACTIONS here.

PS1/
This will be lengthy, but only because the approach must be multipronged.

First, I must speak the truth: we are already deep into this crisis. The deeper we get, the more intractable it becomes. However, we still have the chance to turn the tables and to mitigate damage.

PS2/
Doing so will require everyone to engage in an extraordinary effort—now.

More specifically, here is a list of critical actions to be taken.

PS3/
ACTION #1: Republicans must choose the side of history they wish to be on. They must stop this now, and they must absolutely stop this if it reaches the House. This may sound unrealistic. But we must carry out an unparalleled pressure campaign to make this happen.

PS4/
ACTION #2: The Democrats must also choose the right side of history. They need to “out” the coup and be forthright in confronting the problem. Ignoring truth will only lead to darkness. But they must also be careful not to stoke more fire.

PS5/
The Democrats must inform the American people in blunt, bleak terms. They must delegitimize Trump in the media.

PS6/
ACTION #3: The media must call the coup what it is. Dancing around it and peddling minutiae and gossip is exactly what Trump wants. Do not enable him. Provide historical context when reporting on the coup. Fight back against beliefs in American exceptionalism.

PS7/
ACTION #4: Please review my pinned tweet/thread, which organizes all of my key work in a central location. Let me highlight several critical points from this work, as follows.

PS8/ https://twitter.com/1JoshGreenberg/status/1291776691287871496
ACTION #5: Protest—now. The people are the ultimate backstop against tyranny when all other systems fail. Protest must strictly adhere to the civil resistance methods pioneered by Gandhi and King.

PS9/ https://twitter.com/1JoshGreenberg/status/1295472525921718272
We must be willing to risk our lives; all of the greatest heroes of history have been. If you are unable to protest, find another way to support the cause from behind the scenes. In addition, boycott and strike.

PS10/ https://twitter.com/1JoshGreenberg/status/1295472525921718272
ACTION #6: Call your congressperson and other local leaders. Demand reality, not delusion. Demand action, not only denunciation. Demand strategy, not improvisation.

PS11/
ACTION #7: This thread outlines solutions to longstanding deficiencies in resistance strategy, including counter-messaging, public education, and mass peaceful protest. They can and should still be pursued now.

PS12/ https://twitter.com/1JoshGreenberg/status/1286767492145217537
ACTION #8: This thread contains personal coping strategies in the face of an autocratic onslaught. Apply them to your own life.

PS13/ https://twitter.com/1JoshGreenberg/status/1316147186170654720
ACTION #9: We need to work to rebuild community and connection with those around us. I understand that this is easier said than done. It will require profound courage.

PS14/
We need to restore shared social reality. Even with all of the mutual hatred, we HAVE to reach out to the friends and family members on the other side. There is no other option.

PS15/
ACTION #10: We must defang Trump’s followers, blunting the threat of violence. Therefore, I continue to advocate a major peace effort.

PS16/ https://twitter.com/1JoshGreenberg/status/1321150651909324807
The peace effort includes everyday actions in our own lives. It also includes a Biden-initiated peace process to promote non-violence and de-escalation of conflict. Yes, extraordinary times call for extraordinary measures.

PS17/ https://twitter.com/1JoshGreenberg/status/1321150651909324807
Many people have trouble envisioning a path to peace. But we must be courageous. If we truly do not want war, we cannot half-heartedly pursue peace. A peace effort is not merely an idealistic endeavor; it is a strategic initiative to save lives.

PS18/ https://twitter.com/1JoshGreenberg/status/1321150651909324807
ACTION #11: We need to understand—from a social perspective—how we arrived at this crisis, if we want any hope of getting out of it. My treatise, HOW WE GOT HERE, tells that story while offering a strategic, moral vision for the future.

PS19/ https://twitter.com/1JoshGreenberg/status/1313296081489260544
The work is available entirely for free via the Medium friend links in this corresponding thread.

PS20/ https://twitter.com/1JoshGreenberg/status/1313296081489260544
ACTION #12: We must stop denying. We must acknowledge reality and confront the truth. This series of threads dissects our country’s denialist disease. The second thread in particular provides strategies to overcome denialism.

PS21/ https://twitter.com/1JoshGreenberg/status/1296982982222372866
ACTION #13: Listen to those of us who study governance, human rights, social collapse, history, and system design, and who have lived authoritarianism firsthand. We are not sounding the alarm for our own edification. We are tortured. We are desperately trying to save lives.
PS22/
ACTION #14: If anyone knows of any (high-dollar) donors who see the truth and who would be interested in supporting a major institutional approach related to these strategies, please reach out to me via DM or email.

PS23/END
You can follow @1JoshGreenberg.
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