1/ A few tidbits about the election: first, Trump won counties representing 75% of America's land area...

2/ ...but only ~40% of its population

3/ ...and only around 10% of America's most productive counties, measured by GDP...

4/ ...and counties representing only 29% of GDP in total - an even more lopsided result than his election vs Hilary in 2016

5/ If you divide GDP by population for "Red America" vs "Blue America", you get the following:

Red America: ~$45k
Blue America: ~$78k

6/ Also, Blue America counties contain almost all of the 100 largest companies in America, as measured by market cap. This makes Trump's constant focus on the SP500 an aberration, not the norm

7/ What are the implications China should be aware of?

1. The GOP is no longer the pro-business party of America - the Dems are. China needs to find a way to reach Blue America's wallets

8/ Second, the nature of American business has changed. Blue counties dominate financial and digital services exports, and China needs to link them into the Chinese market. Specifically, if the US drops the Huawei, Tiktok, and Wechat bans, China should consider dropping the GFW.

9/ ...but, since traded services have a much lower marginal cost structure than goods, China needs a different way to protect its market to make sure it can still build the tech platforms and realize the network effects that are vital for dominating the 21st century

10/ Whatever protections China is contemplating should be coordinated with the EU, India, and the rest of Asia, as those economies are also keen to protect "their slice of the pie" from US digital services giants

11/ That effort may not be successful, but it's important to make sure the US can't unilaterally impose its digital services trade regime on those geographies. China needs to give them an alternative

12/ This effort would then give China leverage to engage with Blue America, which will be the new "US establishment" going forward, and specifically negotiate a new trade system that keeps geopolitical tensions with the US in check

13/ ...while also giving Chinese companies room to be successful and grow vs US companies that benefit from ultra-low interest rates, H1B talent, and US platform effects

14/ The good thing is that a split Congress and COVID mean Biden will spend his first year mired in domestic gridlock. China cannot sit still. It needs to move fast on getting the EU, India, and the rest of Asia onto the same page vs the US tech giants.

15/ Then, as midterms loom, China can sign digital services trade agreements with as many countries as possible, with the end goal of pressuring the US into a more amenable stance with respect to tech competition

end/ And sometime between now and the midterms, China can start dropping the GFW for select countries and companies as long as they agree to some new digital services trade agreement.

I would start with Korea and Germany on this.