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Today Allegheny Co. is reporting 317 new coronavirus cases. The daily record for the county is 331 cases, which occurred on 7/14. The 331 number was due both to the summer surge and a significant reporting backlog that dated back to June 8.
However, today's count of 317 cases dates back to Oct. 30.
BIG DIFFERENCE.
BIG DIFFERENCE.
Why is there always some lag in-between when a test sample is submitted and a positive case reported? It takes time for a test to be analyzed and for that result to be submitted to public health authorities.
A 10-lag is not at all ideal for contact tracing purposes.
A 10-lag is not at all ideal for contact tracing purposes.
This lag can skew our understanding of the data. Here's a chart from @HealthAllegheny which tracks positive tests from the date they're submitted.
Like the rest of the US, Allegheny Co. is in the midst of a surge that is showing no signs of slowing
https://www.alleghenycounty.us/Health-Department/resources/COVID-19/Covid-19.aspx
Like the rest of the US, Allegheny Co. is in the midst of a surge that is showing no signs of slowing
https://www.alleghenycounty.us/Health-Department/resources/COVID-19/Covid-19.aspx
We've hit so many record-breaking days lately, yet the data is so messy. So IMO a "record-breaking" number is less important than the overall trend.
IE: Cases are rising fast. The holidays are coming & weather is getting cold, so growth will likely continue to accelerate.
IE: Cases are rising fast. The holidays are coming & weather is getting cold, so growth will likely continue to accelerate.
I am very worried that we will hit a point--perhaps in Dec. or Jan.--where our health systems will be overwhelmed with COVID-19. This will affect anyone dealing with a health issue, not just those who have contracted the coronavirus.
