In new work, we investigate changes in potential flood risk due to #ClimateChange-caused increases in extreme precipitation. We find that near-term warming will bring about a large increase in population exposed to flood in continental U.S. (Thread: 1/13) https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020EF001778
Increased flood exposure due to climate change and population growth in the United States

•Population exposure to flood hazard is increasing due to both climate‐driven increases in extreme rainfall as well as demographic shifts •There is a wide range of plausible increases in population...

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020EF001778
We combine simulations from a climate model large ensemble (CESM-LENS) and a high-resolution hydrodynamic model ( @fathom_global) to estimate how projected increases in extreme precipitation will affect the extent and depth of flood inundation. (2/13)
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020EF001778
We combine simulations from a climate model large ensemble (CESM-LENS) and a high-resolution hydrodynamic model ( @fathom_global) to estimate how projected increases in extreme precipitation will affect the extent and depth of flood inundation. (2/13) https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020EF001778
We combine simulations from a climate model large ensemble (CESM-LENS) and a high-resolution hydrodynamic model ( @fathom_global) to estimate how projected increases in extreme precipitation will affect the extent and depth of flood inundation. (2/13) https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020EF001778
Our use of the large ensemble allows us to consider extremely rare, high-magnitude flood/precip events directly, without making statistical assumptions--including so-called "100-200 year floods" that have little or no precedent in historical record.(3/13)
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020EF001778
That extreme precipitation increases in a warming climate is no surprise, given prior work & theory. But we find that the magnitude of the projected extreme precip increase actually increases non-linearly as a function of event severity! (4/13)
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020EF001778
That extreme precipitation increases in a warming climate is no surprise, given prior work & theory. But we find that the magnitude of the projected extreme precip increase actually increases non-linearly as a function of event severity! (4/13) https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020EF001778
That extreme precipitation increases in a warming climate is no surprise, given prior work & theory. But we find that the magnitude of the projected extreme precip increase actually increases non-linearly as a function of event severity! (4/13) https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020EF001778
This non‐linear increase for the most intense precipitation events has potentially major implications--as it suggests accelerating societal impacts from historically rare or unprecedented precipitation events in the 21st century. (5/13) #CAwater
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020EF001778
This non‐linear increase for the most intense precipitation events has potentially major implications--as it suggests accelerating societal impacts from historically rare or unprecedented precipitation events in the 21st century. (5/13) #CAwater https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020EF001778
This non‐linear increase for the most intense precipitation events has potentially major implications--as it suggests accelerating societal impacts from historically rare or unprecedented precipitation events in the 21st century. (5/13) #CAwater https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020EF001778
Recent experience & research suggests that so-called "megaflood" events are less rare than has commonly been assumed--think California's "Great Flood of 1862" or Houston's experience during Hurricane Harvey in 2017--but #ClimateChange compounds risk.(6/13)
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019EF001242
Recent experience & research suggests that so-called "megaflood" events are less rare than has commonly been assumed--think California's "Great Flood of 1862" or Houston's experience during Hurricane Harvey in 2017--but #ClimateChange compounds risk.(6/13) https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019EF001242
Recent experience & research suggests that so-called "megaflood" events are less rare than has commonly been assumed--think California's "Great Flood of 1862" or Houston's experience during Hurricane Harvey in 2017--but #ClimateChange compounds risk.(6/13) https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2019EF001242
We consider multiple scenarios of both climate & U.S. population growth in coming years. Increasing extreme precip increases exposure in all scenarios, but pop expansion into risk zones greatly amplifies effect (aka the “Expanding Bullseye Effect”).(7/13)
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020EF001778
Strikingly, flood risk is larger than simple sum of contributions from climate & pop growth! We find "exposure hotspots"--unpopulated areas outside of historical floodplains that are subsequently populated & within expanded future flood footprints. (8/13)
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020EF001778
These projected "exposure hotspot" regions make attractive targets for land use and zoning policies--as well as floodplain rehabilitation activities--aimed at reducing or stabilizing population-level flood risks in a warming climate. (9/13)
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020EF001778
It's worth noting that our "medium warming" scenario is quite relevant to near-term planning: it considers time period 2020-2049 on a carbon emissions trajectory similar to the one we're currently on. These are changes that are largely unavoidable.(10/13) https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020EF001778
Increased flood exposure due to climate change and population growth in the United States

•Population exposure to flood hazard is increasing due to both climate‐driven increases in extreme rainfall as well as demographic shifts •There is a wide range of plausible increases in population...

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020EF001778
Finally, we emphasize that these are intended as approximate, first-order estimates of climate-driven flood risk. We deliberately exclude key factors, such as changing soil moisture & snow cover, that strongly modulate flood response to precip. (11/13) https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020GL088000
Spatial Dependence of Floods Shaped by Spatiotemporal Variations in Meteorological and Land‐Surface...

We introduce a flood connectedness measure enabling the mapping of spatial flood dependence The spatial dependence of floods varies regionally and seasonally and is generally highest in winter and ...

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020GL088000
For a more nuanced perspective on the importance of these modulating land surface factors in a warming climate, see forthcoming work led @ManuelaIBrunner. Hopefully this new research will become available sometime during the first half of 2021! (12/13) https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020GL088000
Spatial Dependence of Floods Shaped by Spatiotemporal Variations in Meteorological and Land‐Surface...

We introduce a flood connectedness measure enabling the mapping of spatial flood dependence The spatial dependence of floods varies regionally and seasonally and is generally highest in winter and ...

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020GL088000
Finally: this open access publication in @EarthsFutureEiC was a collaborative effort with folks from @UCLAIoES, @BristolUni, @nature_org, & @C3WE_NCAR--including @oejwing, @KrisAJohnson, & @Climate_Done. Many thanks to all involved! (13/13) https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020EF001778
Increased flood exposure due to climate change and population growth in the United States

•Population exposure to flood hazard is increasing due to both climate‐driven increases in extreme rainfall as well as demographic shifts •There is a wide range of plausible increases in population...

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2020EF001778
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