Whenever people talk about the "demographic dividend" or the huge time cost of having children I feel like they are just absolutely uncomprehending of how difficult and wearisome elder care can be.
Changing a baby's diaper >>> Changing a bedpan
The idea that elder care is going to, on net, be less of a weight on society just seems so prima facie unreasonable to me I have difficulty believing anyone who argues it has ever been into a nursing home.
Now of course, people get old. It's baked in. Adding baby care on top of that is extra burdens on more-or-less the same people. But with higher fertility rates there are more people to share that elder care load.
I just cannot imagine the burdens on the younger generation in 4-2-1 families. I'm a big believer in the importance of fulfilling family duties even at great cost.... but taking care of 4 (6???) elders for several decades? That will have social costs!
"But actually our healthy and independent lives are getting longer too!"

I mean, kinda? "Independence" here is being redefined, as it involves a lot of people who get a major surgery every year or two to remain independent...
... and during the post-op require significant care. Or people who are "independent" in objective terms, but not in highly socially functional terms, leading to serious mental health problems.
I'm just saying: folks, if you have a kid, have a few. The whole "well I won't ask my kid to take care of me" routine fundamentally misunderstands how these burdens occur: they are intrinsic to the bond of love and cannot be waved away. And also you're not that rich.
So, for the vast majority of us who aren't that rich, either your life ends in some mixture of squalor, pain, and loneliness, or else your family (descendants) take up a not-inconsiderable care burden.
Which is why I say: have a few. Because one kid gets overwhelmed. They need some help. Taking care of you when you are old will be a lot less fun than taking care of them when they were a baby, and you had family help with that!
i.e. a spouse or some other family, which the vast majority of parents have at various periods.

Point is. Pass on the favor. Recruit your kid some help. Have more than one.
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