Brett Kavanaugh just said “I tend to agree” that the ACA’s (zeroed out) individual mandate can be severed from the rest of the law. Unless he’s bluffing—which is possible!—that probably means the ACA is saved.

My guess at this stage: The six conservative justices find the individual mandate unconstitutional. (Which will be ridiculous, but whatever.)

Then a majority (maybe 5–4?) will just sever the individual mandate from the rest of the ACA, which will have no impact on anyone.

Here’s the full Kavanaugh quote. If he really means it, that’s the ballgame. https://twitter.com/mikesacksesq/status/1326191609034256384

Roberts: Republican lawmakers may have wanted the courts to abolish the entire ACA, but “that’s not our job.” (This case is designed to troll him, and he does not like being trolled.)

Pretty clear a majority of the court is going to sever the mandate from the rest of the ACA.

Kavanaugh reiterates that he thinks precedent requires the court to simply sever the individual mandate if it’s unconstitutional. Calls those precedents “on point.” Also (correctly) rejects the plaintiffs’ claim that the ACA has an inseverability clause. Good stuff.

Arguments are finished. I’d bet a lot of money that, whatever SCOTUS says about the individual mandate, it is not going to invalidate any operative provision if the ACA, let alone the whole law. I am relieved.