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This week we have released suicide data for 2020 covering several parts of England, total population 9 million. The month by month figures are reassuring: they show no rise in suicide following lockdown.
Thread, updated today. @NCISH_UK
http://documents.manchester.ac.uk/display.aspx?DocID=51861
Thread, updated today. @NCISH_UK
http://documents.manchester.ac.uk/display.aspx?DocID=51861
As always when we present graphs & data, we want to stress that these numbers represent real people, real lives lost, real families devastated. We work a lot with bereaved families & never forget the individual tragedies that lie behind our statistics. @NCISH_UK
Our report combines “real time” suicide numbers from several areas of England for 2020 to give a national picture. Monthly figs vary, with no pattern & no change at lockdown: average pre-lockdown 84.0, post-lockdown 85.4.
Our 2020 post-lockdown figures are around 7% higher than for the same period in 2019. This has to be seen in the context of rising suicide rates in England & improving data collection. Our most reliable comparison is between pre- v post-lockdown months.
“Real time” refers to collection of data on suspected suicides as they happen, without waiting for inquest. This is necessary because inquests can take several months, too late for the close monitoring we need during a pandemic.
Several areas have well established real time data systems & are in the study. They are not named but are in different parts of the country. The 9m people they cover make up 1/6 of England’s population (9m is larger than most countries in Europe), enough to draw conclusions.
It’s important to acknowledge that for many, mental health has been worse in the pandemic. But this seems not to have led to higher suicide rates. Reasons are unclear but it may reflect variable experience, a protective effect of social cohesion or, for some, additional support.
Our conclusions:
•the large rise in suicide that many feared has not occurred
•there appears to have been no increase, at least in these areas
•does not rule out a rise in some areas or groups or as pandemic continues
•too early to estimate long term economic impact
•the large rise in suicide that many feared has not occurred
•there appears to have been no increase, at least in these areas
•does not rule out a rise in some areas or groups or as pandemic continues
•too early to estimate long term economic impact
This reassurance matters because of continual predictions & claims, without evidence, of sharply rising suicide rates. These media stories can be distressing to people who are already vulnerable, adding to risk. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpsy/article/PIIS2215-0366(20)30484-3/fulltext
It’s also important to recognise the limitations. The report makes clear that there are several caveats, that the message may change as we collect more data, that we can’t rule out rising rates in some areas or groups of people, that economic stresses may carry particular risk.
However, our findings are consistent with recent reports from parts of Australia, Brit Columbia (Can), Massachusetts & Norway. Only Japan has followed a different pattern (fall, then rise). Position is unclear in lower income countries. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/nov/09/suicide-figures-show-no-increase-in-rate-in-nsw-or-victoria-during-covid?utm_term=Autofeed&CMP=twt_b-gdnnews&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1604907765
In time, I suspect we'll move away from a single question about whether the pandemic has affected suicide rates to something more complex: in which people, during which phase, living where? After all, the impact of Covid-19 itself has not been the same across communities.
For now, though, there is some reassurance in what we & several other countries are finding. It emphasises the need to continue to support those who are anxious, lonely or traumatised, to maintain services, to come together as supportive communities & to remain vigilant.
