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THREAD: Pausing from the US election, what is it happening in #CotedIvoire, which also held a contentious presidential election recently? I am going to discuss here why Cote d'Ivoire 2020 resembles Cote d'Ivoire 2010, and why it is different 1/
The 2010 Ivorian election aimed to put an end to a crisis that had de facto split the country since 2002. CdI was divided between a loyalist South and a rebel controlled North and UN and French peacekeepers were deployed. The UN SRSG had a mandate to "certify" the election. 2/
All Ivorian major political forces ran in the first turn of the election. In the second turn, then incumbent president Gbagbo opposed current president Ouattara, supported by a broad coalition, where we find his now rival former president Bedie. 3/
You can read this by Bassets about the election. Turnout was high (81%). The UN and all major observer groups (EU, Carter Center, ECOWAS, AU) estimated that the electoral operations had ran relatively smootly and reported no major instance of fraud. 4/ https://academic.oup.com/afraf/article-abstract/110/440/469/107878?redirectedFrom=fulltext
However, the CEI (Electoral Commission) was prevented by the government to announce Ouattara's victory with 54%. CEI president had to flee and give the announcement alone under the UN protection. The Constitutional Council, presided by a Gbagbo loyalist, overturned the result. 5/
Mentioning dubious accusations of fraud in the rebel-controlled area, largely relying on "zombie observers" reports, the CC arbitrarily annulled the vote in those areas instead of calling for a new election (as the Constitution mandated). This gave 51% of the votes to Gbagbo. 6/
Both Gbagbo and Ouattara (confined in a Hotel complex under UN protection) claimed that they were the legitimate president and appointed rival governments. The UN, all Western countries, ECOWAS and, with some hesitation, the AU recognized Ouattara's victory. 7/
What followed was a tense confrontation between the isolated Gbagbo regime, which continued to control the capital, and the international community. Crucially for Ouattara, rebel leader Soro took his side and put the Forces Nouvelles at his disposal. 8/ https://academic.oup.com/afraf/article-abstract/111/442/1/31548
The confrontation thus ended in April 2011 with Gbagbo's arrest and extradiction to the International Criminal Court, while Ouattara became president supported by a large coalition and was able to reunify the country. Now, how do we go from 2010 to 2020? 9/
Initially, the only meaningful opposition Ouattara faced came from Gbagbo loyalists. They considered him illegitimate and deplored repression. Numerous pro-Gbagbo politicians were arrested, including FPI leaders Affi N'guessan and Assoa Adou and former first lady Simone Gbagbo10/
However, since the 2015 elections, Ouattara has alienated many of his former allies. Parties from the ruling coalition were merged into a single party, the RHDP, however this was done in a way that put members of Ouattara's RDR party and other Ouattara loyalists in control. 11/
Ouattara insisted on choosing a close ally and member of his former party as candidate for the presidential coalition, breaking his promise to Bedie to norminate a candidate from the PDCI party. When the candidate died unexpectedly, he decided to run for a third mandate. 12/
Ouattara's relationships with Soro, who never hid his intention to be a candidate in 2020, were even more stormy. In the first years, Ouattara struggled to neutralize Soro's influence on the army, where former FN commanders have been integrated. 13/ https://bit.ly/3liUkj0
In the last few years, the government seems to have managed to win the loyalty or neutralize the influence of FN commanders. Meanwhile, pro-Soro politicians have been marginalized, harassed and in some cases arrested. 14/
In the end, Soro is abroad and was unable to run in the 2020 elections. He was accused of staging a coup and sentenced by an Abidjan tribunal in absentia for financial crimes, a sentence that he considers politically motivated 15/
Soro has NOT been the only candidate unable to run in the 2020 election. The Constitutional Council, now controlled by a pro-Ouattara magistrate, declared only 4 candidates to the presidential election eligible out of 44. I explain what happened here16/
https://twitter.com/GiuliaPiccolino/status/1307283355159998464
https://twitter.com/GiuliaPiccolino/status/1307283355159998464
While rejecting numerous opposition candidates, the CC accepted Ouattara's bid for a third term on very dubious legal grounds. In the end, Bedie and Affi N'Guessan, the only opposition leaders of some importance running, decided to call for an "active boycott" of the election17/
The Ivorian government has used state of emergency powers to ban opposition marches protesting Ouattara's candidature and election rigging. According to the joint @EISAfrica @CarterCenter statement, election-related violence left 40 people dead and hundreds of people injured.18/
Observers are very clear that the "overall context and process of the polls did not allow for a genuinely competitive election" and that... "these issues now threaten the acceptance of the results and the country's cohesion". 19/ https://www.cartercenter.org/news/pr/2020/cote-divoire-110220.html
Official results have given Ouattara re-elected with 94,27%, which was predictable given that all other candidates but one have been unable to run or have boycotted the election. The 53,90% turnout appears dubious confronted with previous elections. 20/ https://www.cei.ci/resultats-recents/
The active boycott promoted by the opposition seems to have been felt uneavenly in the country. The EISA/Carter Center EOM and journalist reports suggest that it had most impact in the centre of the country, where most followers of Bedie and his PDCI party are. 21/
In spite of the contestation, the Ouattara-controlled Constitutional Council appears to have endorsed the results of the election. 22/ https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/11/9/ivory-coast-president-ouattaras-disputed-third-term-confirmed
What is happening now with the opposition? They seem to have gone back to the 2010 playbook, arguing that since Ouattara is not a legitimate president, authority should be vested in a "transitional council" presided by the 86 year old Bedie. 23/ https://www.france24.com/en/africa/20201102-ivory-coast-opposition-says-forming-transitional-govt-after-election-boycott
The government is responding with repressive measures. Affi N'Guessan has been arrested. Rumours that he had been tortured and/or had died circulated on social media, until on Sunday a video of him ostensibly in good conditions appeared. 24/ https://bit.ly/36BLuqL
Bedie has not been formally arrested by his house was surrounded by the police in the wake of the election. His close collaborator and PDCI secretary Maurice Kakou Guikahue is also in jail. 25/
These opposition figures are being charged with "intent to attack the authority of the state” for forming the transitional council, an accusation that was previously used against pro-Gbagbo politicians after 2010. 26/ https://reut.rs/3neRz2H
The opposition might have hoped to replicate Ouattara's 2010 gamble of creating his own rival government, but has two problems. The international community does not support it, and has little leverage in the country compared to 2010. 27/ https://bit.ly/3kiHhNa
The second problem is that numerous opposition figures have been involved in the same violations of democracy that they now reproach to Ouattara - Bedie used issues of nationality and "Ivorianness" to exclude Ouattara from the elections in 1995. 28/
Affi and other pro-Gbagbo leaders supported Gbagbo's attempted "Constitutional coup" in 2010. Soro has been involved in an armed rebellion and attempted coup d'etat against the then government. 29/
Anedoctal evidence suggests that the Ivorian population is disillusioned with both government and opposition, concerned with day to day survival in a situation of widespread poverty and reluctant to fight on the side of any politicians. 30/
While we should not expect a full scale conflict, Cote d'Ivoire's democratic backsliding and the lack of legitimacy of president Ouattara do not bide well for the future. Yet, the international community seems to keep low profile in the name of stability. End of thread 31/31
