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THREAD. Initial thoughts on the #Karabakh deal, based on the few details currently available. Appears to be a combination of a watered down version of the Basic Principles – but crucially with a smaller NK territory and no vote on status – and the Key West land exchange agreement
2/Important questions left unanswered. i. NK status. May have been left deliberately ambiguous, but the absence of any mention of a vote, Armenia’s weak position + Aliyev’s speech last night do point to some form of autonomy. However autonomy comes in many different forms..
3/ How extensive will this autonomy be, and any guarantees that it won’t be undermined/abolished? Security guarantees important – and are 2000 Russian peacekeepers enough and/or will it be combined with capacity for self-defence? – but so are political guarantees.
4/The Lachin corridor could suggest the creation of some form of ‘special parallel relations’ with Armenia (à la Bosnia’s Republika Srpska and Serbia). Is that the plan? Also, how will IDPs returning to what remains of NK be protected and what rights will they have?
5/ii. Nakhichevan corridor. Is this a ‘sovereign corridor’ as proposed in Key West, i.e. a territorial exchange, or some other form of arrangement (e.g international lease)? How wide? What happens to the population in this area?
6/ Will be an obvious target. How will it be protected – also in the long term. Heard talk of Turkish peacekeepers but hard to imagine that ARM (or RUS) would ever accept Turkish peacekeepers in Meghri END
