Quick remarks on the Karabakh developments:
1- The agreement is very bad for Karabakh and Armenia, as Karabakh gets even less on all levels that were discussed during + 20 years of negotiations;
2- This bad deal reflects the military balance of forces. After the fall of Shushi
2/ other towns such as Marduni, but eventually Stepanakert - a city of 50'000 - are endangered. Those calling for continuation of war will have to agree to a worst agreement in few days. 3- Pashinya's speech last night was not adequate. He had to explain why this agreement, what
3/ were the consequences of continuation of the war few more days, assume responsibility for signing the agreement, and call for national unity. Instead, he accused the old regime ... He should have position himself as the leader of the nation, not just one part of it.
4- The attack against the parliament shows the danger of internal strife. This will have only one result: weaken Armenia and further threaten the existence of Karabakh. The struggle will be long to assure the basic rights of Karabakh Armenians, and in-fighting will not help.
5- Armenia has a chance to shift this military and diplomatic defeat into strategic victory - on the long term. Think about Germany after WWII - figuratively and not as one to one example. But to succeed, there should be a honest revision of the strategic failures,
6/ miscalculations, jingoistic nationalism, incapacity to calculate the consequences of political declarations and acts. Armenia needs strategic thinking, regrouping around a new national project, to overcome this defeat.
7/ To save what could be saved in the short-term, and to have a long term strategy Armenia needs two things: a leadership with vision that can unite the nation, and public debate that can overcome the pain and turn it into positive force.
Will this happen?
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