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There was clearly no alternative for #Artsakh and #Armenia to signing the deal. As #Shushi fell, constant shelling of #Stepanakert would have followed and a complete loss would have followed. It was the only chance to safe some lives, at least.
Yet, that treaty is horrible:
Yet, that treaty is horrible:
Most of the lost territory was sparsely populated (Agdam, Kalbajar and Lachin Rayons of #Azerbaijan). They were always kept as buffers, mostly. Losing them surely weakens #Aartsakh, but at the same time was always calculated for.
What hurts the most will be the loss of #Dadivank, #Tigranakert and #Shushi. Basically, all historical and culturally important places of #Artsakh are now in the parts taken by #Azerbaijan.
There is a serious fear for cultural genocide: https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2019/mar/01/monumental-loss-azerbaijan-cultural-genocide-khachkars
There is a serious fear for cultural genocide: https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2019/mar/01/monumental-loss-azerbaijan-cultural-genocide-khachkars
To elaborate: Almost all museums (carpet, history, art, etc.) are in #Shushi. The treaty says nothing about handing over any of these artifacts or preserving the cultural sites, some of which are amongst the oldest in the Caucasus.
The #Azerbaijan travel regime, which blacklists everyone who has been to #Artsakh and everyone with an #Armenian name, means that no one with a connection to these cultural monuments will see them again. Not even on visit.
The same is true for #Shushi as a city. Not only are 5,000 #Armenians now homeless, they will never be able to visit their home again - or the graves of their parents or families.
The suffering #Azerbaijan IDPs rightly stressed isn't gone - it's now the suffering of #Armenians.
The suffering #Azerbaijan IDPs rightly stressed isn't gone - it's now the suffering of #Armenians.
Finally, there is no perspective for #Artsakh. Smiling #Aliyev made very clear in his statement that there won't be a special status for Nagorno Karabakh and foreshadowed that it will become Azerbaijani, too. The future is less secure than ever.
I wouldn't be terribly surprised if #Azerbaijan cancels the treaty in five years, if they didn't get #Artsakh to surrender their territory in complete in the meantime, to launch another war. Nothing in the treaty prevents this and Aliyev was very clear about it.
Finally, a word about the Russian peacekeepers. Having been to #Transnistria, #SouthOssetia and #Abkhazia repeatedly, I trust they will prevent further bloodshed. But they also undermine #Artsakh's independence severely. Russia is now in control.
Whatever the #Artsakh government plans to do in the future, it will have to seek permission from #Moscow. Often, #Moscow won't mind - but sometimes, they might. That's the situation in all de facto states with FSB border guards.
As European, I am ashamed about this. One of the worst dictators of our time was allowed to start and proceed with a bloody war against a young democracy. Supported by a NATO member. Silently accepted by the world. Armenia didn't lose, they were left alone and Artsakh sacrificed.
