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I'm seeing a lot of speculation that Trump might run for president again in 2024. God knows I've been wrong before, but I'm skeptical.
The two things that Trump seems to genuinely like about the presidency are (1) being seen as Important and Powerful and (2) legal immunity.
The two things that Trump seems to genuinely like about the presidency are (1) being seen as Important and Powerful and (2) legal immunity.
(1) he can also get by being President-In-Exile at Mar-a-Lago, while the Great and Good of the Republican Party troop in and seek his blessing in exchange for booking party events at his properties and other assorted grifts.
(2) he's losing in January regardless, and either he'll be facing legal consequences at some point in the next four years or he won't be. Announcing a re-election campaign immediately might complicate the optics of charging him, but it doesn't provide any formal protection.
Aside from that, though, why bother? The presidency is a big, complicated job and one he doesn't seem to particularly enjoy; moreover, it draws attention to his various attempts to sidestep the legal order.
And, notwithstanding the truly execrable rhetoric of elected Republican officials around the legitimacy of the 2020 election, lots of them either personally want to run in 2024 or want someone not named Trump to get the nod.
So I think he runs out of institutional support pretty quickly, much like Sarah Palin did after 2008.
With all that in mind, a weaponized post-presidency, leaving plenty of time for tweet-shouting and golf, would seem to offer a better deal for him.
With all that in mind, a weaponized post-presidency, leaving plenty of time for tweet-shouting and golf, would seem to offer a better deal for him.
In other words, he's the inverse of Jimmy Carter: having lost a re-election campaign, he'll re-dedicate himself to himself.
