Further to my interview with @BBCGaryR on #bbcgms earlier, here’s a little thread of my thoughts on the #SirJohnMajor intervention.

Firstly, the things I think Sir John is correct about. He’s right that if the SNP wins a majority and UKG says no to #indyref2, they are asking for trouble. It will simultaneously delay independence, but also make it inevitable.

It’s also fundamentally good that a senior Unionist is thinking beyond the usual ‘our precious union’ and ‘once in a generation’ and all the other guff. Does this extend to the Tory leadership? I’m not sure.

However, now the bits I think Sir John has wrong. Firstly, the confirmatory referendum (let’s call it #indyref3) would be an insurance policy for 2014 No voters to vote Yes in #indyref2, knowing they could reverse if the deal looked poor. Would be a landslide, creating momentum.

Most fundamentally, though, it (and Sir John has expressed it publicly but others have in private) is based on an assumption that UKG will act belligerently (as the EU has, incidentally) and create a terrible and unattractive exit. Risky. Almost abusive.

Here’s the fundamental issue: unionists need to accept that the status quo is a dead duck. Covid has supercharged the opening of the cracks in the devolved and regional settlements. London is struggling to understand that the era of UK centralisation is about to end.

If Unionists (particularly Tories) can get their head around the REAL choice (independence or federalism) they still have time to offer that to Scotland in a single #indyref2, and probably win it. And then there’s a model for the rest of the UK.

Finally, I accept that both Brexit and Boris complicate this, and likely in a negative way. But in my view neither make #indyref2 unwinnable nor to they change the fundamentals.

And finally finally, I don’t expect, and wouldn’t advise, the official position to change before the May election. What needs to happen between now and then is a change in mindset. An acceptance and understanding. And some clinical rather than emotional strategy.