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With all the focus on the ALP's mid-term position. I thought it would be useful for me to clarify some of the challenges all governments will have on 2030 targets next year.
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The US was one of the few countries to set a 2025 emissions target under Paris (26-28 percent on 2005 levels by 2025). Most countries set 2030 targets. Australia set the same % target as the USA but five years later in 2030. (Abbots political fudge for low ambition.)
The Paris process was designed to address the inconsistency between 2025 and 2030 targets by providing an opportunity for the US to set a 2030 target before COP26. The US would not accept them doing this alone so all countries are expected to step up.
This process has begun with the EU, China, Japan and South Korea, in addition to setting net zero emissions targets, are also agreeing to review/strengthen their 2030 goals. New Zealand has done the same. And ...
Under the Paris Agreement rules, the USA’s 2030 target must be stronger than its existing 2025 target. (By extension means it will be significantly stronger than Australia's current target.)
The optics of major allies like the USA, the UK, and the EU AND major Asian economies updating and strengthening their 2030 targets will be difficult on Australia, especially as the Government remains committed to use Kyoto carry-over credits to achieve its 2030 target.
In short, It is not just the ALP who has to answer questions about their 2030 ambitions. It is all governments in all nations.
Colleagues feel free to add @BillHareClimate @hbamsey @jconnoroz @HighamAndrew @deanbialek @wtmpacific @frankjotzo @TennantReed @TristanEdis @aruptom @thomwoodroofe @SHamiltonian
