I've never done one of these so let's give it a try.

A thread about my read of the new RA / 9 / Stan TV Rights deal and how it compares with previous deals.

In 2015 RA announced a 5 year broadcast deal outcome at $275M (so $55M a year)

That was up from $25M/year the previous period although it did also include all international rights (such as the USA, UK, FRA, ITY, Middle East, Asia-Pacific & Japan). BSkyB from UK tipped in a heap. Plus the US dollar was stronger in 2015 than the previous period (apparently).

That deal had all Super Rugby and Wallabies on fox sports and Fox then on-sold the Wallabies rights to Ch 10. Ch 10 also replayed a Super Rugby match a week on Sunday morning. There was also NRC in there which we know Fox Sports subsidized a fair bit.

This deal is $100M over three years + an option for another 2 - let’s call it $33M/yr. On a pure dollar basis that's $22M /yr on the last deal (but more than the deal before). However, the OS broadcast deal is yet to be confirmed which is much of the increase came from last time.

From a broadcast offering, we have Ch 9 broadcasting the Wallabies, plus a prime time Super Rugby match every week plus Super Rugby finals & the occasional club match.

The new streaming site gets the balance of the Super Rugby and whatever else we can throw at them (more club, Wallaroos, Super W - the last two of which Fox broadcast anyway).

Fears that Stan Sports could do an Optus for the Football World Cup where the system failed and SBS had to step in. Thankfully, if that happens hear Ch 9 are still the boss and GEM/Go become viable next options.

I don't know what we will get from OS for this, given such time of uncertainty, but the fact we actually have rugby next year (with real crowds) must be appealing given the uncertainty around live sport in many places in the north.

If we can snag a conservative $10M a year from OS then I think we are ahead of the previous deal. I am sure RA have done some modelling on what benefit such a free to air deal (including a large chunk of promotional value) has on sponsorship potential.

The timing of the 3 year deal with 9 is positive too in that by then we should know how RWC future hosting plans and the Lions tours viability will become more visible too.

Th other factor here is the volume of content, and this is far more of a looser assessment than the previous content.
In 2019, the Super Rugby season had 106 games (including midnight SAF games).

Super Rugby AU had 22. Let's say they double that next year and then add the trans-Tasman finals with NZL. They'll be lucky to hit 60 Super Rugby games.

So from the broadest of extrapolations:

2019 - $55M / 106 games = RA received approx $520k per Super Rugby game
2021 - $33M / 60 games = RA receives approx $550k per Super Rugby game.

And that's still without the international broadcast deal.

Obviously there are Wallaby games in there too, but as they are most likely like for like, we can rule them out. I'd expect the mooted 2022 Trans Tasman will have more games, but perhaps not 106 (and none at midnight)

In summary? It looks a damn good deal with hopefully more good news to come.