The thing about evaluating danger is that there are at least two axes to consider: the axis of probability and the axis of magnitude.

A thing that has little impact and little probability? Not worth worrying about much.

There are lawyers and legal scholars on here whose opinion I value arguing that the concern over Trump's coup is overblown or even "mass hysteria" because they can't see any mechanism by which it succeeds.

I feel like this is in part a failure of imagination on their parts, fueled by institutionalism and a lawyer's eye view of the situation. Trump's "legal strategy" so far has been neither particularly legal nor strategic so I get where they're coming from, even as I disagree.

So in deference to their expertise I will agree. I think, as things stand right now, that is a low-percentage scenario that Trump is successful; the odds of him winning specifically through the courts is close to, if not, nil.

Buuut that doesn't mean the danger is worth ignoring.

If you fire a bullet into the air, the odds that this bullet will return to the earth with approximately the same energy with which it was discharged is 100%. The odds that it will strike a person are considerably lower.

But the consequences of that low-percentage scenario, where the falling bullet strikes someone, are about the same as if you had pointed the gun at them and pulled the trigger. They still get hit by a bullet!

Low probability, high impact. Not worth the risk.

Even if we can't imagine a route by which Trump succeeds... and I can, in loose terms, imagine a few... the consequences of his success would be horrific. Catastrophic. Everything that a legitimate second term would bring and more, and worse.

So I will not tell you not to worry about Trump's attempted coup unfolding before us, because it's worth worrying about.

I will ask you not to despair over it. I said before that acting as though Biden has won (he has!) and Trump is a loser (he is!) helps counter it.

In part this is about what narratives take hold in the media (social and otherwise) and popular consciousness. The right's narrative is very strong: "stop the steal!" and "socialism!" and "something something laptop." Okay, maybe they aren't all winners.

Biden is, I think, doing the exactly right thing by proceeding with his transitional plans even in the absence of GSA declaration and federal support. Before he made his victory speech, I said he was acting presidential without waiting for permission.

The more he acts like a president in clear contrast to Donald Trump, the harder Trump is going to have making his big moves, if he sees the opportunity for them. The more, eventually, GOP in office will want to work with him.

I think Trump's clearest route to "victory" here is to make so much trouble and cause so much chaos and threaten so much destruction that everybody with political power decides to simply go along with him.

I don't think Joe Biden will do that.

And I think Joe Biden acting presidential, showing leadership, laying out his plans and making connections and getting ducks in a row... I think that will dissuade others from going along past the point of no return.

In the same general category of "low probability, high impact". States are already rebuking it; current understanding of the law seems to run that it wouldn't even work. https://twitter.com/jodywallace/status/1326036474144432128

To make a long story short (TOO LATE!) - this isn't over until it's over, and it's never been over until it's over. There is nothing inevitable about Trump's victory, though. I mean, among other things, a wave of covid is still ravaging the major players on his side?

I mentioned last week that Bill Barr seemed to be keeping deliberately above the fray, not getting roped into what people quickly dubbed the "clown show" of Trump's lawyers, with the suggestion that he would wait to get the lay of the land before he made his move.

Barr's opening moves... in my very unofficial position as a layperson... read to me like a fishing expedition, done as much to give him cover from Trump as it is with any deliberate intent at producing particular results.

This may change! It is *vanishingly* unlikely he will identify any actual legal case that would change the results of the election, but that's not the same as saying he won't find something he can work with, or that Trump could, working extralegal angles.

"But why would an official resign in protest if Barr's just spinning his wheels?"

Perhaps because of the intent, much more than the likely impact.

All of these things are likely to be true:

1. Trump wants to use the circus to get money to pay down his debts.
2. Some Republicans are humoring him with an eye towards the GA runoffs.
3. His own staff is mostly trying to placate him.
4. They could still pull it off anyway.

4. might seem at odds with the other three, but back in 2016 before our election I said that the number one lesson we should take away from politics of the year was "You Brexit, you bought it." Sometimes it doesn't matter what your gameplan was. Sometimes the dog catches the car.

Oh, yeah, the Murdoch Empire is definitely trying to beam "Marvin K. Mooney, Will You Please Go Now?" into his brain. The GOP electeds still see their fate as tied to him because they need those last two senate seats, though. https://twitter.com/erinbiba/status/1326039276044349441

Anyway, that's where things stand now. I'm still feeling pretty good. Cautiously optimistic, resigned to it taking longer than it should for the dust to settle. I won't tell you how to feel, but I'm not panicking.