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All eyes on Georgia so here's the
Peach Bowl Pre-pre Game
Momentum - Very D
Fundamentals - Weak R
Candidates - Mixed Bag
Base line #s:
1. Trump overperformed his ’16 *margins* in ~30 counties BUT the largest was Bulloch county, w/ only 30k votes
(predictions at end)
Peach Bowl Pre-pre GameMomentum - Very D
Fundamentals - Weak R
Candidates - Mixed Bag
Base line #s:
1. Trump overperformed his ’16 *margins* in ~30 counties BUT the largest was Bulloch county, w/ only 30k votes
(predictions at end)
2. Of GA’s 9 counties w/ >100k votes, Biden won 7, averaging a wild 59% of the vote or 1.4M votes
3. 67% of GA turned out. 560k AA votes returned VBMs, at a rate of 71%
...all to ask w/o Trump on the ticket:
A) Do rural Rs stay juiced?
B) Are infrequent Ds coming back out?
3. 67% of GA turned out. 560k AA votes returned VBMs, at a rate of 71%
...all to ask w/o Trump on the ticket:
A) Do rural Rs stay juiced?
B) Are infrequent Ds coming back out?
To answer A:
McConnell certainly hopes Trump turns his ire from PA recounts to GA turnout
IF Trump does rally the troops, the stump will probably be >90% about him/stuffed ballots but that doesn't matter, enthusiasm is coin of the realm
McConnell certainly hopes Trump turns his ire from PA recounts to GA turnout
IF Trump does rally the troops, the stump will probably be >90% about him/stuffed ballots but that doesn't matter, enthusiasm is coin of the realm
B is harder to answer
Warnock is a compelling, Ossoff is an awkward fit
After G’town, he worked for Hank Johnson who represents majority-minority GA4
If Ossoff is carries DeKalb/Fulton by anything *close* to Biden’s #s, its entirely on the D brand & Warnock’s coattails
Warnock is a compelling, Ossoff is an awkward fit
After G’town, he worked for Hank Johnson who represents majority-minority GA4
If Ossoff is carries DeKalb/Fulton by anything *close* to Biden’s #s, its entirely on the D brand & Warnock’s coattails
Rs are already teasing oppo on Warnock; allusions to Rev. Wright abound but not sure that matters
There was virtually NO ticket splitting: Perdue got <1k votes more than Trump. If there were tons of reluctant Biden Rs, Perdue should've FAR outrun Trump, but he didn’t
There was virtually NO ticket splitting: Perdue got <1k votes more than Trump. If there were tons of reluctant Biden Rs, Perdue should've FAR outrun Trump, but he didn’t
The biggest hurdle for Loeffler vs. Warnock is consolidating Collins votes. He won the Trumpiest parts of the state & Loeffler prob can't afford >3% slippage
Ds will try to recreate huge VBM drives but idk how you do that w/ so many infrequent voters
Ds will try to recreate huge VBM drives but idk how you do that w/ so many infrequent voters
SO...who will win??
I'm laying down some markers but I'll revisit before 1/5:
1. Whoever wins will do so by >1.5%
2. Both races will go the same way
3. As of now, I see Rs +2
...subject to change! But you all asked, and thus I deliver
I'm laying down some markers but I'll revisit before 1/5:
1. Whoever wins will do so by >1.5%
2. Both races will go the same way
3. As of now, I see Rs +2
...subject to change! But you all asked, and thus I deliver
(Addendum)
This ENTIRE race comes down to marginal slippage from last week. Assume
-White Ds = -2%
-White Rs = -4%
-AADs = ???
I’m assuming big AA slippage in my R+2 (very early) call b/c of VBM
This is the fundamental question though...
This ENTIRE race comes down to marginal slippage from last week. Assume
-White Ds = -2%
-White Rs = -4%
-AADs = ???
I’m assuming big AA slippage in my R+2 (very early) call b/c of VBM
This is the fundamental question though...
