Thread by @Craig_A_Spencer, Although there was good #COVID19 news today, the hardest part still lies [...]

Although there was good #COVID19 news today, the hardest part still lies ahead.

New cases are at record highs and hospitalizations will soon be as well. Deaths will sadly follow.

So I made an explanatory photo montage for why we mustn't be complacent. Follow along below:

When you look at these charts and see daily updates on COVID19 cases/hospitalizations/deaths, it might be hard to understand how they all fit together and why the recent trends are so worrisome. So let me explain...

First, let's look at CASES.

We won't look at the first 'wave' from March because we had very testing then and we missed the majority of cases.

But look at our huge cases increases starting in June and September. You see new cases start

around June 8 and Sept 14...

First, let's look at CASES. We won't look at the first 'wave' from March because we had very testing then and we missed the majority of cases. But look at our huge cases increases starting in June and September. You see new cases start around June 8 and Sept 14...

Ok, so what happened with HOSPITALIZATIONS?

In both 'waves' COVID19 hospitalizations [blue arrows] started to increase 2 weeks after an increase in cases [red arrows].

Nothing surprising here - we know there's a lag between getting sick & getting sick enough to be hospitalized.

So what about DEATHS?

Deaths [black arrows] start to rise ~2 weeks after hospitalizations increase and ~4 weeks after cases.

Again, not a huge surprise. We know there's a lag between getting sick, getting sick enough to be hospitalized, and ultimately succumbing to COVID19.

Now going back to that original chart, you can see why a lot of us are REALLY worried.

There's been a VERY dramatic increase in cases recently. We are on a substantial upslope. We will undoubtedly hit 200k cases per day in coming weeks. And many of those will be hospitalized...

We are already at 59k hospitalized with COVID19. We are just a few hundred hospitalizations short of previous records, and we will surpass those by the time many of you read this.

Yes, we have gotten better at treating COVID19. Better protocols, some meds. Death rates ARE lower.

BUT if way more people are hospitalized, the number of deaths will still climb despite our advances.

Deaths were so high early in the pandemic partly because hospitals and providers were overwhelmed with so many sick patients.

If our numbers continue, that will play out again.

Undoubtedly, someone will say 'yeah, but testing has increased!'. It certainly has and that's great. BUT that doesn't fully explain the dramatic case and hospitalization increases. Here's a piece from @COVID19Tracking that explains it well.

https://covidtracking.com/blog/cases-matter

So what's the takeaway?

Cases rise first, followed ~2 weeks later by hospitalizations, then ~2 weeks later by deaths.

We've had a huge

in cases & hospitalizations recently. Deaths have started to climb.

But now ALL the metrics are moving in the wrong direction, and fast.

So what's the takeaway?Cases rise first, followed ~2 weeks later by hospitalizations, then ~2 weeks later by deaths.We've had a huge in cases & hospitalizations recently. Deaths have started to climb. But now ALL the metrics are moving in the wrong direction, and fast.

Even if we were to stop all COVID19 transmission right now, the next month will be really really bad.

Everyone, everywhere needs to please wear a mask. That's cannot be about politics - it must be about public health.

And we need to think carefully about our holiday plans...

Yes, we ALL want to see our family over Thanksgiving and Christmas. But those get-togethers will allow COVID19 to spread. EVEN IF everyone feels fine or gets a negative test a few days before.

I really hate to say it, but this winter is going to be hard.

But if we all come together and put aside our partisan divisions - as a country - we can still prevent the worst.

We are ALL sick of this virus. I am. Oh, how I am! But this virus is not tired of making us sick.

So please be safe. Be well. And let's get through this together.

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