Exponential growth of #COVID19BC cases in recent weeks continues. 1/
The growth in cases started in Fraser and is now spreading to Vancouver. 2/
More concerning is the expansion of new cases in older demographics 3/
This is translating into a rapid growth in hospitalizations. 4/
And younger demographics (who go to schools) are not spared 5/
The growth fits a simple exponential growth curve with a doubling time of 19 days (assuming Sep 1st for current wave). 6/
The average number of daily new cases per 100k people has now surpassed 10 in Fraser, and approaching in Vancouver 7/
New measures were announced by BC authorities on Saturday 8/ https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/safety/emergency-preparedness-response-recovery/covid-19-provincial-support/lower-mainland?bcgovtm=20200506_GCPE_AM_COVID_11_NOTIFICATION_BCGOVNEWS_BCGOV_EN_BC__NOTIFICATION
Lower mainland social interaction restrictions

By order of the Provincial Health Officer (PHO), all individuals, places of work and businesses in the lower mainland must significantly reduce their level of social interactions.

https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/safety/emergency-preparedness-response-recovery/covid-19-provincial-support/lower-mainland?bcgovtm=20200506_GCPE_AM_COVID_11_NOTIFICATION_BCGOVNEWS_BCGOV_EN_BC__NOTIFICATION
This is the first more strict restriction in place since measures started to lax back in May

https://twitter.com/vb_jens/status/1325964965287636997

9/
There was a lot of confusion about the new rules, but basically it boils down to decreasing contacts we have, as that has been shown to be the most effective measure in slowing down the spread of the pandemic. http://epidemicforecasting.org/calc  10/
Mitigation Calculator - Paper

Researchers from the Oxford Future of Humanity Institute have created country-specific predictions of the current and future spread of the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic using GLEAMviz epidemic...

http://epidemicforecasting.org/calc
A lot of people try to understand what the difference is between indoor and outdoor gatherings. Basically, there is strong evidence now that aerosol transmission is a key component for transmission of the virus. 11/ https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-10-28/a-room-a-bar-and-a-class-how-the-coronavirus-is-spread-through-the-air.html
A room, a bar and a classroom: how the coronavirus is spread through the air

The risk of contagion is highest in indoor spaces but can be reduced by applying all available measures to combat infection via aerosols. Here is an overview of the likelihood of infection in three...

https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-10-28/a-room-a-bar-and-a-class-how-the-coronavirus-is-spread-through-the-air.html
Hence, gathering indoors represents a higher risk than gathering outdoors.

https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3223

12/
Let's take this seriously, as rapid growth in cases precedes rapid growth in hospitalizations/deaths. 13/
Let's take this seriously, as rapid growth in cases precedes rapid growth in hospitalizations/deaths. 13/
Let's take this seriously, as rapid growth in cases precedes rapid growth in hospitalizations/deaths. 13/
Today there is good news regarding a potential new vaccine 14/ https://apnews.com/article/pfizer-vaccine-effective-early-data-4f4ae2e3bad122d17742be22a2240ae8
Pfizer says COVID-19 vaccine is looking 90% effective

Pfizer said Monday that an early peek at the data on its coronavirus vaccine suggests the shots may be a robust 90% effective at preventing COVID-19, putting the company on track to apply later...

https://apnews.com/article/pfizer-vaccine-effective-early-data-4f4ae2e3bad122d17742be22a2240ae8
Which is great news, but recent discoveries on new strains of the virus raise concerns on how effective the vaccine will be on these new strains. 15/ https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.04.355842v1
The circulating SARS-CoV-2 spike variant N439K maintains fitness while evading antibody-mediated...

SARS-CoV-2 can mutate to evade immunity, with consequences for the efficacy of emerging vaccines and antibody therapeutics. Herein we demonstrate that the immunodominant SARS-CoV-2 spike (S) receptor...

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.11.04.355842v1
Not to mention the new 'mink' virus, which is resulting in the killing of millions of animals in Europe, as it is feared that the new strain could be resistant to the vaccines. 16/
Although this is a topic of active research

https://twitter.com/firefoxx66/status/1324095151984312324

17/
Regardless, we need to keep down our contacts or we will reach over 1,000 new cases per day before the end of the month. 18/18
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