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Ok, time for some Republican Party game theorizing. 1/
Starting with Trump, his future post-presidency is bleak. Potential criminal and civil exposure aside, the failure of banks to continue to patronize him for favors and the impending service of his debt means that he may very well be staring down repossession of Trump Tower. 2/
This is likely a psychic injury for him roughly equivalent to having his genitalia hacked off, not to mention the stigma that comes from being a loser. So he's looking for other actors to save him somehow and liable to catastrophize and lash out at anyone not. 3/
This brings us to his Supreme Court nominees. They have a much larger time horizon than Trump, being lifetime appointees, and are looking forward to several decades of continuing to subtly tip scales for Republicans and quietly (and sometimes loudly) shape American policy. 4/
There's one thing that could threaten that, which brings us to McConnell. McConnell has been thrust into a beautiful position, basically getting everything he wants out of Trump without having to deal with risking an overt fascist military destabilization or the like. 5/
As Senate Majority Leader he can basically dictate all areas of policy he cares about, legislate through the courts, and get a veto on appointees, significantly constraining Biden. However, this is all in danger if they lose the GA-Sen elections, because of court-packing. 6/
Court packing, too, is the only thing that can threaten the institutional power of the SCOTUS's conservative majority, and thus the appointees fear it as well. Somehow though Schumer is credibly signaling it as a possibility because of the timing of the Barrett nomination. 7/
To that end, McConnell and Trump's SCOTUS appointees are trying to thread the needle of appearing to want to maintain Trump in office to play to Trump's psychology, because they don't want him to realize they're no longer aligned and withdraw his cult from Georgia. 8/
McConnell's language is careful - he's leaving open the possibility that Trump won without actually directly alleging any actual fraud. His Senate and House colleagues are being less careful, with some acting like this is a normal transition and some messaging more Trumpian. 9/
So that comes to the Loeffler/Perdue letter attacking GA SecState Raffensperger. The senators are in highest danger of being seen by Trump as non-Trumpian, and the GOP political project rests on their shoulders. They're both flawed candidates of the kind Trump might suspect. 10/
By allowing for the possibility that Biden may have won, Raffensperger has irredeemably tainted himself in Trump's eye, and Trump demands no less than a full display of loyalty. Raffensperger for his part ... I think maybe he's eyeing the role of Charlie Baker of Bleorgia. 11/
With the way Georgia is going, there's a perfect opportunity for someone to play the card of being a Republican but one who became well known for "bipartisanship", which in the long run means getting attacked by your own state Republican party. 12/
To that end, I would bet that McConnell and the more cerebral parts of the institutional GOP drop all obstruction of the election the day after the Georgia senate elections. Conveniently, that's the day the joint session certifies the electoral votes, so he has an excuse. 13/
As to the Trump executive branch, there are some who are so incompetent that they only got their positions by ingratiating Trump specifically, and these people might agitate for more hawkish stances. Most, though, are creatures of the institutional GOP. 14/
I think most Trump staffers are looking to keep their heads down during this transition and rotate out into random think tank and lobbying positions (back into the swamp) and return when institutional memory fades. They don't want a coup attempt, which might backfire on them. 15/
