Yes, Soccer Scores Are More Surprising Than Usual This Season

I've crunched the numbers and it does look like things are more unexpected this season.

Via @forbes @ForbesSports https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesreade/2020/11/09/yes-soccer-scores-are-more-surprising-than-usual-this-season/

Here's the mean absolute forecast error (that is, forecast minus outcome) from using Elo ratings to predict Premier League matches this season.

It's outside confidence bands calculated including it. It's an outlier...

But it's only a few observations (N=78). We can add more by looking across all England's top five divisions.

League One and the National League are also much more surprising this season.

The Championship and League Two not so.

But 3/5 leagues more unexpected.

What about if we go further back, say to 1970?

Then we find that the Premier League was this unexpected back when it was Division One in the 1980s.

But League One and the National League have never been this uncertain before.

Fun times. Shame there are no fans there to watch..