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Folks have been asking me, so I thought I'd arrange my thoughts into tweets! I'm impressed with the vaccine at 90% effectiveness! For reference, flu vaccines that are well-matched to seasonal strains can be about 50-60% effective. But! https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/09/covid-19-vaccine-from-pfizer-and-biontech-is-strongly-effective-early-data-from-large-trial-indicate/
It's really early days for this trial, and this is just an 'interim' analyses before they hunker down and do a full analysis! This data comes from an independent (i.e. non-Pfizer) panel of experts called a Data Safety Monitoring Board (DSMB) who operate outside the company.
While these findings are promising, I'd be cautious of how Pfizer, media, and governments spin this. They released VERY limited details - and whether it's stocks, clicks, or political polls, there are benefits for multiple players (aside from some hope for a beleaguered public)!
As an aside, for a quick bit of info on how the vaccine works, check out this brief explanation: https://twitter.com/eugenegu/status/1325866679318925312
As per the article, there's no clarity how much this vaccine i) reduces symptoms, ii) prevents hospitalization/deaths, iii) prevents asymptomatic carriers, and I'd add - whether it prevents infection altogether! Before timing our 'return to normal' status - we need more answers.
How this and other questions are answered will determine where/how this and/or other vaccines may best be used. Assuming this result pans out, for example, how soon might you be able to get vaccinated and get back to 'normal'? In my view, that's a big "it depends."
If the promised 1.3 billion doses are available by the end of 2021, and 2 injections are still necessary for treatment, only 635 million folks globally can be vaccinated next year. Which countries get doses, and who in those nations gets them first will be a tough conversation.
Plus, the challenges of scaling up production, storage, transportation and distribution will be a logistical nightmare. Having worked with -80C (-112F) freezers (and had them break down on me), this might be a logistical nightmare for even the most discerning among us.
ON THE PLUS side, there's a chance that the number needed vaccinations may not be that high to eliminate the virus. Tongue-in-cheek, there's a chance that anti-vaxxers might not screw us all over! For info on that, I refer to my favourite epidemiologist: https://twitter.com/DFisman/status/1325865986977882113
In sum, though, this is definitely great news and we should most certainly be excited and proud of ourselves - research is moving quickly, and this is a testament of humanity's ability to work together to rise above challenges that meet us. Still though, we're not done yet!
This may not be THE vaccine, and there may not ever be 'one.' You'll likely hear news stories of dozens other vaccines soon and that's okay. No two vaccines are the same, and we may have to use a collection of vaccines to help us out.
Don't consider this vaccine the endgame. It's more a really bright light at the end of the tunnel - we will still need follow public health measures. Beating this virus may require multiple vaccines AND masking/social distancing for a while longer.
As always, be careful what you read and check your sources. In the meantime, be cautiously optimistic, and stay safe!
