It's extremely disappointing to see @WGHealthandCare @vaughangething suggest it would be "foolish" to plan to deal with the #Cancer backlog before the end of the #COVID19 pandemic. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-54808693

A thread to explain why:

Firstly, what is the backlog? Different organisations have tried to model it. So let's just look at one measure - the number of urgent cancer referrals. In most cases, this will be someone who has been referred by their GP for urgent cancer tests because of their symptoms.

Official @WGHealthandCare data shows that between March and August, there were around 18,000 fewer urgent cancer referrals in 2020 than in 2019. That doesn't mean there's been fewer cancers out there, just that they're not being spotted.

The reasons for this are complex but we know that during the first pandemic peak, people were less inclined to contact their GP or attend hospital appointments, either from fear of COVID or concern that they would add burden to an NHS already under severe strain.

The problem is that those people who would have been urgently referred in normal times will still have those symptoms and, for some, have undiagnosed cancer. Delaying diagnosis could see their cancer progress and be picked up at a later and less treatable stage.

While some cancers have begun to recover, there's still big concern for others, like lung cancer. Not only is this one we're traditionally poor at diagnosing early, urgent referrals are still below normal levels. To reduce the backlog, we need referrals to be higher than normal.

This backlog will also add significant additional demand on the NHS in terms of cancer tests and treatments needed. Let us not forget that NHS capacity in cancer services was already a worry before the pandemic hit.

That's just urgent cancer referrals. Looking across the rest of cancer - screening, treatments, care, end of life - the picture is the same. The impact of COVID-19 will add major pressure on the NHS in the months and years to come...

...unless we make a plan!

It's why @CRUKCymru @CRUK_Policy and our friends in @WalesCancer have consistently called for a cancer recovery plan. This needs to maintain COVID-secure spaces for cancer services, as well as increasing capacity where we can, and giving people confidence to access the NHS.

If we accept @vaughangething's notion that planning now to address this backlog would be foolish, someone should let the Scottish Government know. They announced back in August they would develop a cancer recovery plan.
https://www.gov.scot/news/plan-to-remobilise-and-re-design-cancer-care/

The problem with waiting until the end of the pandemic to think about the cancer backlog, as @vaughangething has suggested, is that the backlog will only get worse without action, not better.

Even with today's good vaccine news, it's impossible to say when the pandemic will be 'over'. The idea that @WelshGovernment are willing to wait for an indeterminate point of time to start thinking about cancer is nothing more than sticking heads in the sand.

Two final messages:

Firstly, be in no doubt that @CRUKCymru and @WalesCancer will continue to campaign for cancer patients during the pandemic. We are united in wanting a robust cancer recovery plan led by the Welsh Government.

Secondly, and most importantly, if you are currently experiencing any concerning or unusual symptoms, please get in touch with your GP. The NHS will do whatever it can to see you safely. And should it be cancer, picking it up early gives the best chance of beating it.

ENDS