Looking ahead to tomorrow morning’s #SCOTUS hearing in California v. Texas, the case with implications for the #ACA’s ultimate survival, here’s a preview of what to watch:

The Court will hear from each side for 40 minutes: California & the US House will argue in support of the ACA, while the Trump Administration, Texas, and 2 individuals will oppose the ACA.

It’s worth watching for any questions from the Justices about whether the challengers can establish “standing” – that is, whether they have the legal ability to bring the case. Without standing, the case will be dismissed, and the #ACA survives.

The standing issue turns on whether the challengers are actually injured by the individual mandate – for example, are the individuals who say they felt compelled by the mandate to purchase Marketplace coverage actually harmed when the alternative is a penalty of $0?

Next, the Court has to decide whether the individual mandate remains a constitutional tax with the penalty set at zero dollars. If it’s constitutional, the ACA survives.

If the Court decides the mandate is unconstitutional, the big question is whether it can be “severed” from the rest of the law -- and whether the #ACA survives -- so it will be worth watching for questions from the Justices about which if any other ACA provisions may be at risk.

While the Justices’ questions may provide some clues about their current thinking, the outcome of the case isn’t certain until the Court issues its written decision – expected before the end of the term. In the meantime, Congress could pass a legislative fix to save the ACA.

The case is ready to decide after the argument, though it's unlikely the Court will do so before Inauguration. So a Biden Admin could change the government's position & support the ACA. But, that would not make the case moot, with TX & 2 individuals still arguing against the ACA