World Bank's initial C-19 forecasts were far too optimistic, particularly for poor countries. Subsequent revisions imply the number of people falling into poverty will be roughly x2 as high.

+131m < $1.90/day
+257m < $3.20/day
https://blogs.worldbank.org/opendata/impact-covid-19-global-poverty-under-worsening-growth-and-inequality?cid=dec_tt_data_en_ext ht @ChristophLakner

. @arvindsubraman and I noted the optimism of those early WB and IMF forecasts at the time -- which asserted poor countries would be relatively spared by this crisis, despite epidemiological evidence to the contrary, and despite strict early lockdowns. https://www.cgdev.org/publication/imfs-growth-forecasts-poor-countries-dont-match-its-covid-narrative

I think a key question now though, is whether the WB and IMF's mistaken optimism contributed to complacency in their actual crisis response?

And will the gradual recognition of those errors lead to bolder action now?
https://www.cgdev.org/sites/default/files/world-banks-covid-crisis-lending-big-enough-fast-enough-new-evidence-loan-disbursements.pdf