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I used to get mad at @NateSilver538’s forecasts because I wanted to understand them in metaphysical terms, but I think if you come to terms what what he’s really saying you’ll realize that they are accurate and good and your anger is with the uncertainty of human knowledge.
Think of it this way: If you took 538’s forecasts to the gambling websites and used it as the basis for your betting strategy, you’d make money.
Metaphysics: When I was in college, I took a seminar with Robert Nozick and he had stomach cancer.
One day he came in and said something like “the doctors tell me there’s a 70% chance I’ll be dead before the new year which raises some interesting questions.”
One day he came in and said something like “the doctors tell me there’s a 70% chance I’ll be dead before the new year which raises some interesting questions.”
He wanted to know: Is there some piece of info that the doctors lacked, where if they had it they could tell him definitively?
(Epistemic uncertainty)
Or was it the case that his condition was a 70/30 crapshoot of survival depending on cosmic rays or something?
(Metaphysical)
(Epistemic uncertainty)
Or was it the case that his condition was a 70/30 crapshoot of survival depending on cosmic rays or something?
(Metaphysical)
The doctors apparently thought this was a dumb, annoying question.
All they meant was that in their experience, people in this situation died quickly 7 times out of 10. They had no further interest. In was practical guidance about getting your stuff wrapped up.
All they meant was that in their experience, people in this situation died quickly 7 times out of 10. They had no further interest. In was practical guidance about getting your stuff wrapped up.
(He made it a *bit* longer than the doctors thought probable and was able to wrap up the semester before passing away)
