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To expand on exchange with @MattGrossmann, first yes, this is a uphill. This is absolutely true. I want to be cleat I'm not disputing that at all. Also, it will be nationalized. Again, that's obvious. There are key advantages GOPs have. One of the biggest is that suburban ...
2/ crossover has been driven by Trump. This will be a first test of the durability of that shift. Additionally, GOPs will now be able to play on voters' desire for balance. Can say, sure you voted for Biden. But don't you want a check on Biden too? Well, vote for the GOP, etc.
3/ On the other hand, it's clear that Trump turned out a lot of people for him, a lot of fairly occasional voters. It's an open question to me how many of those voters still turn out now that he's not on the ballot and (as will become clear) and that he lost.
4/ What you really have here is a battle over the durability and persistence of the two coalitions and turnout operations. And my small quibble with Matt is that I think that unknown is substantially greater in terms of vote differentials than the pretty small margins in ...
5/ round one. Another major factor here that I don't think people are factoring in enough is Trump himself. This vote is in early January. But that time it is highly likely that President Trump will have lost in the electoral college (100% done) and that he will still not ...
6/ have conceded defeat. Does that turbocharge GOP revenge turnout? Does it force Purdue and Loeffler to endorse Trump's increasingly absurd stance and sow dissension within the GOP? Don't know. But again, open questions.
7/ Odds favor Republicans. No doubt about that. Especially when you consider that Democrats need to win both seats to control the Senate. Tall order. The state still has Republican muscle memory. But doable? I think so. And more unknowns than people seem to think.
8/ One final point which needs to be figured in. The new senate will make critical decisions about the ACA. Republican control and it dies after SCOTUS axes it. Also, COVID relief. It would certainly make sense for the House to pass a bill now and send it to the senate.
