I've gamed it out a good bit in my head and TBH I think if there are 5 votes to overturn Roe, this Term would be best time strategically (from the perspective of the majority and Republicans) to do so. Some thoughts below... https://twitter.com/johnkruzel/status/1325838993548861440

First, I'll say that we don't know for certain whether there are 5 votes to overturn Roe. I feel pretty confident that there are three (CT, SAA, ACB). I think that there's a pretty good chance for NMG and BMK, but less certain there. And CJ seems less likely after June Medical.

But if there are now 5 votes: when is the ideal time to issue the decision? Timing is entirely under the Justices' control, given that they have discretion about when to take cert, and also when to consider to overrule a case.

I'm asking this question from the perspective of the possible majority as well as that of elected Republicans. I'll assume that the incentives are pretty similar for these purposes, though we can debate that assumption.

When wouldn't the majority want to do it? Well, in an election year, probably. Makes the Court more in the political crosshairs, and if there's gonna be a backlash (which seems likely) it would hurt Rs more the closer to the election the decision happens.

All things equal, you'd probably also want to maximize timing before an upcoming *presidential* election, given that those are higher stakes (and higher stakes for the Court in particular). So that suggests the year after a presidential election is pretty ideal.

What about who the President is? Rs might not want this to happen early in a R president's term, because it could mobilize opposition and detract attention from legislative agenda. Could also make it harder to fill vacancies that might arise.

So, perhaps, it's better for it to happen during a Democrat president's term. But there's a danger of legislative backlash. Biden proposed national abortion legislation. Which would create collision course with the Court.

So...from Rs perspective, it would be better if Dems didn't have unified control of government. Which, of course, they don't right now.

And, of course, there's also the concern that unexpected events happen and you lose the majority you've spent so long building. That also suggests fast action.

All this makes me think that strategically, Rs may want to pull the trigger now, rather than kicking the can down the road further.

That doesn't mean it necessarily will happen; some Justices may not see the considerations the same way. And some might want to do more of a test balloon before going all the way.