Did you know having fewer drivers on the road this year will actually make distributing the coming vaccinations much much harder?

Most people gloss over how interconnected our various supply chains are.

A supply chain thread...everyone’s favorite kind.
As a result of COVID-19, people are driving a lot less than normal.

The lower demand for petroleum products means much lower prices for crude. West Texas Intermediate crude is about half the price, it was last year. https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti
Fracking, which drives most of our domestic production, needs prices oil > $50 to be really profitable. With oil prices down, so are rig counts, which are a major measure of drilling activity.

Less drilling, less petroleum bi-products. https://rigcount.bakerhughes.com/rig-count-overview
Most vaccines need to be stored at temperatures well below what standard cold packs can maintain. For that reason, you have to use dry ice.

Well, dry ice is already in short supply because more people are using food delivery services now that they’re stuck at home.
Simple problem to solve right? Just make more dry ice.

Problem is that dry ice is frozen Carbon Dioxide. It’s too expensive to distill from the air around us.

Normally it’s a bi-product of Natural Gas production, which itself is generally a bi-product of oil production.
With oil drilling activity down, there are just fewer sources of Carbon Dioxide. Without an excess supply of Carbon Dioxide you literally can’t just create dry ice out of thin air.

No dry ice means harder transportation challenges for vaccines when they’re ready.
So while we were all cooped up at home this summer, the market effects of our quarantined behavior had a ripple effect of eventually making it a bigger logistical challenge to vaccinate the country.
Logistics is the exceptions management business. This shortage is one giant exception that needs managing.

Although it sounds like doom and gloom, as a logistics professional, I will say that if there’s any industry in any country that can figure it out, American Logistics will.
You can follow @jaybsauceda.
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