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1. Exciting news of a vaccine got me thinking. What would Spring look like if we got a vaccine?
Here's a thread on why it's not all roses, even if we can beat Covid back in next 6 months.
Tl;dr: if government don't act to pre-empt a Spring health crisis, we're in BIG trouble
Here's a thread on why it's not all roses, even if we can beat Covid back in next 6 months.
Tl;dr: if government don't act to pre-empt a Spring health crisis, we're in BIG trouble
2. FIRST. We will continue to see the consequence of Covid on our health and care heroes.
@IPPR research shows they have put experience huge declines in health and mental health, major difficulties with housing and caring commitments, problems with pay and sick pay.
@IPPR research shows they have put experience huge declines in health and mental health, major difficulties with housing and caring commitments, problems with pay and sick pay.
2 Continued: Check out these horrifying numbers
3. This comes down to policy. Before Covid, not enough was done to pay workers properly (public sector pay freeze).
During Covid, not enough was done to supply PPE, diagnostic tests, mental health support, sick pay or child care provision.
It has left people on the brink.
During Covid, not enough was done to supply PPE, diagnostic tests, mental health support, sick pay or child care provision.
It has left people on the brink.
4. 1 in 5 are now more likely to quit because of Covid. That's 300,000, on top of usual annual turnover.
Who can blame them?
Those who returned to help out will also leave.
Brexit will decrease immigration of health and care workers.
It's a scary thought.
Who can blame them?
Those who returned to help out will also leave.
Brexit will decrease immigration of health and care workers.
It's a scary thought.
5. This will compound our below average numbers of Doctors, Nurses and Long-Term Care workers by OECD standards. To get where we should be, we need: 220,000 more nurses + 70,000 more doctors.
We MUST ACT NOW. Read our vision of 'care fit for carers' here: https://www.ippr.org/research/publications/care-fit-for-carers
We MUST ACT NOW. Read our vision of 'care fit for carers' here: https://www.ippr.org/research/publications/care-fit-for-carers
6. SECOND, and simultaneously, we'll have a huge backlog to fill. During Covid, millions of cancer appointments were disrupted. Many didn't seek help for heart attack symptoms. Elective care was delayed.
These people aren't magically better. They'll need help more than ever!
These people aren't magically better. They'll need help more than ever!
6 Continued: Check out IPPR estimates of a lost decade of cancer progress. https://www.ippr.org/news-and-media/press-releases/up-to-a-decade-of-progress-on-cancer-at-risk-as-a-result-of-the-pandemic-says-think-tank
7. The system didn't have surge capacity for Covid, and it doesn't have surge capacity for the Covid backlog. We still have too few beds, too few workers, too little tech, crumbling hospitals.
We are not in a position to cope.
We are not in a position to cope.
8. So the NHS will remain in huge trouble. Unless WE ACT NOW. We need beds, workers, equipment, innovative medicine and public health interventions NOW.
Read more here: https://www.ippr.org/files/2020-07/resilient-health-and-care-july20.pdf
Read more here: https://www.ippr.org/files/2020-07/resilient-health-and-care-july20.pdf
9. THIRD. In social care, there's still hope Covid is a paradigm shift. Surely now people know more about the sector, funding and reform will come?
The situation is precarious. Care homes are not set up to deal with instability.
The situation is precarious. Care homes are not set up to deal with instability.
10. But instability is what lies ahead. Covid = declining residency rates. Brexit = market insecurity.
Does anyone remember this section from the Yellowhammer paper, before Covid? Provider failure could be imminent.
Does anyone remember this section from the Yellowhammer paper, before Covid? Provider failure could be imminent.
11. Reform is possible. Security is possible. Read more from my colleagues here: https://www.ippr.org/research/publications/financialisation-in-social-care
12. FOURTH. And we can expect a second pandemic: mental health. It's been a tough year for us all. But we're miles from parity of esteem and a well funded NHS Mental Health Service.
Here's a report on what parity would look like: https://www.ippr.org/research/publications/fair-funding-for-mental-health
Here's a report on what parity would look like: https://www.ippr.org/research/publications/fair-funding-for-mental-health
13. The story is not doom and gloom. We can act to avert these problems with bold reform now. A vaccine would give us time to get cracking on preparing for 2021.
But if we fail to act, then the consequences could be bad.
End.
But if we fail to act, then the consequences could be bad.
End.
