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With the International break on, thought I'd do a thread about a story from our Champion League final loss to United, which made me fall in love with analyzing the game.
Credits to @KuperSimon and @sszy. Please buy their incredible book – Soccernomics ( https://www.amazon.com/gp/aw/d/1568587511)
Credits to @KuperSimon and @sszy. Please buy their incredible book – Soccernomics ( https://www.amazon.com/gp/aw/d/1568587511)
The story goes that when we reached the CL final in 2008, a professor of economics and mathematics at an Israeli University spoke to our manager Avram Grant (also Israeli), about an interesting research paper by the Basque economist Ignacio Palacios-Huerta.
Palacios-Huerta's research was based on how penalties were taken and the probabilities involved, and he happy to help. He sent Avram Grant a report with some key observations about United's penalty takers. Little did they know how close it would come to help Chelsea win the CL.
So in Moscow, the game finished 1-1, with Chelsea a man down after Drogba's red. Enter the penalty shoot out. Back in Spain, Palacios-Huerta and his wife were watching on TV, and Huerta said his wife was very skeptical about how a research paper would influence a game.
As the coin was tossed, Palacios-Huerta watched anxiously. Of the 4 major points in his research:
1) Teams which kicked first had a 60% chance of winning. Ferdinand won the toss. Terry tried to influence him by offering to go first, but Ferdinand refused and chose to kick first.
1) Teams which kicked first had a 60% chance of winning. Ferdinand won the toss. Terry tried to influence him by offering to go first, but Ferdinand refused and chose to kick first.
Pointers 2 and 3 from the report stated:
2) Van der Sar predominantly went to a kicker's stronger side. So vs right footed kickers, he'd dive to his own right. Dives left for lefties.
3) He saved most almost all mid-height shots. So all kickers had to go very high, or very low.
2) Van der Sar predominantly went to a kicker's stronger side. So vs right footed kickers, he'd dive to his own right. Dives left for lefties.
3) He saved most almost all mid-height shots. So all kickers had to go very high, or very low.
After Tevez scored first, our first kicker was Michael Ballack. Ballack is right footed, so his stronger sider is to Van der Sar's right. He goes to Van der Sar's left and scores. You can see Van Der Sar reacting very late, as if he was expecting the other side.
Carrick scores United's second, so Belletti steps up for the second. A deep breath, and the Brazilian, also a right footer, does both the right things according to the report – he goes to Van der Sar's left, and he goes very low. Van der Sar dives right, just as the report said.
As Ronaldo walks up, Huerta tells his wife the final point –Ronaldo often stops in his run up. IF he does, there's an 85% chance he'll go to the keeper's right. However, the keeper mustn't move till the last second; cause Ronaldo has the ability to change sides at the last moment
As Ronaldo readies himself, watch Cech. He is a statue. He stays absolutely still. Ronaldo pauses in his run up, and Cech still doesn't move. And like magic, at the last moment, Cech dives to his right and saves it with his head. Palacios-Huerta's wife was stunned.
Up steps our manager, Super Frankie Lampard. Just like the two before him and following the research, he goes hard and low to Van der Sar's left. Again Van der Sar reacts slowly.
When Ashley Cole takes his penalty, he slightly disregards the report. Instead of going to his weaker side as a leftie (Van der Sar's right), he goes to the keeper's left. VdS even dives the correct way, like Palacios-Huerta predicted. However the shot is low, hard (point #3)
This is where fortune throws statistics in the drain. Terry follows the report to the T. He goes high, and he goes to his weaker side (to Van der Sar's right.) Van der Sar even dives the other way, as if mathematics were voodoo. But Terry slips, and the ball whizzes past the post
Sudden death, and Kalou steps up. Up till now, all kickers have gone to Van der Sar's left. All right footed kickers have gone left, their weaker sides. Only Ashley Cole went to his stronger one. But they are all to the left. Kalou, a right footer, also goes left (and high). Boom
It was never meant to get this far. But now either United or Van der Sar realize something is fishy. All the kickers have gone to the keeper's left. Surely that's not a coincidence? So as Anelka steps up, Van der Sar points to his left, as if telling Anelka "I know."
I feel for Anelka. This moment is pure panic. The strategy is compromised. Do I keep following it? Or do I mix it up? At this point, statistics take a backseat. The advantage is lost. It is instinct, it is luck. He is the only Chelsea kicker to go to his stronger side. VdS saves.
As an aspiring sports writer/analyst, when I read this section in Soccernomics it blew my mind. There is so much that happens in plain sight that we do not see; every little number, every little advantage goes a long way. One of the million reasons this is the beautiful game.
The story has a happy ending. The primal instinct from VdS that cost us in Moscow, came back in Munich to push us on. JT hung his shirt from that CL final in his room, as a reminder to win at all costs. Drogba's red, JT's miss; they drove us on in 11/12. Both were unstoppable.
Thanks for reading! As before, huge thanks to Simon Kuper and Stefan Szymanski for unearthing this gem. I cannot recommend Soccernomics enough. If you'd like more of these, please leave a comment, RT, like and subscribe to my non-existent YouTube Channel 
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