This is reason for cautious optimism but...it’s still data by press release. We need any vaccine as soon as possible, but I’m pretty skeptical that this vaccine is going to be the “winner” of the vaccine race. https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/09/covid-19-vaccine-from-pfizer-and-biontech-is-strongly-effective-early-data-from-large-trial-indicate/

The Data Safety Monitoring Board met yesterday and an early analysis of data so far showed that participants in the vaccine arm had fewer cases of symptomatic COVID-19.

“The companies said an early analysis of the results showed that individuals who received two injections of the vaccine three weeks apart experienced more than 90% fewer cases of symptomatic Covid-19 than those who received a placebo.” Sounds good, right?

Yes, that’s a big reduction in symptoms, but it’s not clear that this vaccine is effective at preventing infection altogether. A 90% reduction in symptoms also is hugely beneficial to public health, but a different scenario than 90% reduction in new cases.

People who don’t get infected at all will not be able to potentially transmit the virus to others. People who have less symptomatic disease won’t be overwhelming hospitals and dying, but if they get infected they may still be able to transmit to others.

Again 90% fewer cases of symptomatic disease is huge. Without question, that will save lives if that holds up. But as this vaccine requires two shots and has to be kept ultra cold, it will take a long time to vaccinate enough people that we still wouldn’t have to worry...

...about transmission from vaccinated individuals to non-vaccinated individuals without the same protection against severe disease. And if people are hesitant about getting the vaccine, or there’s limited access because of the cold chain requirements, that could be a long haul.

Also it’s not at all clear how the vaccine performs in people with preexisting conditions or different age groups. That’s critical to know if the vaccine mainly works by reducing disease severity. Does it protect against severe COVID in the people most likely to get very sick?

So again, cautious optimism, but this news does not mean we are on the verge of “ending the pandemic.” If the data supports this it’s a big milestone but not the final milestone. There’s still a long road ahead. Manage your expectations.

And ignore statements like this: “I’ve been in vaccine development for 35 years,” William Gruber, Pfizer’s senior vice president of vaccine clinical research and development, told STAT. “I’ve seen some really good things. This is extraordinary.”

He later added: “This really bodes well for us being able to get a handle on the epidemic and get us out of this situation.”

Maybe. But as the DSMB hasn’t shared all the data with Pfizer it’s a bit premature to make a statement like this based on minimal information.

My suggestion is to be glad that vaccine trials are proceeding and may be showing encouraging results, but don’t treat this as really reliable information about the vaccine until there’s more data available. Be patient. Vaccines take time to test and we should not rush too much.

Having a safe vaccine that we know works is more important (and more effective in the long run) than having a vaccine we think is probably safe and we think kinda works. That just takes time to confirm & these trials have only been going on for 3.5 months.

So have patience and stay the course. This is encouraging & does bode well...but boding well is all it is at this time. Enjoy a feeling of optimism, but don’t pop the champagne just yet.