LOVE this paper ( https://www.nber.org/papers/w28061 ) by @jamesfeigenbaum & Dan Gross. How does automation impact jobs?
F&G study when telephone operators were replaced by mechanical switches.
This was BIG: # of phone operators THEN > # of taxi drivers TODAY.
F&G study when telephone operators were replaced by mechanical switches.
This was BIG: # of phone operators THEN > # of taxi drivers TODAY.
AT&T's network was becoming too complex for people to manage. Rising wages also made automation attractive. Very common drivers; see the S-curve
The network adjustment and job loss also brought intense media scrutiny (regret below poor terms used) and Congressional review
The network adjustment and job loss also brought intense media scrutiny (regret below poor terms used) and Congressional review
F&G's careful work finds optimism for the future -- new occupations rose to replace the lost jobs --
but also pain in the transition for those losing work incumbent operators, often ending up in lower paid roles
but also pain in the transition for those losing work incumbent operators, often ending up in lower paid roles
Dan also wrote a MBA case study ( https://hbsp.harvard.edu/product/718486-PDF-ENG) on these tensions which we teach using @davidautor JEP framework on WHY ARE THERE STILL SO MANY JOBS?:
https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/jep.29.3.3
https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/jep.29.3.3
100 yrs later, AT&T is reskilling 100k+ workers ( https://hbsp.harvard.edu/product/820017-PDF-ENG) ... their program shows resourcefulness (eg new online tools) and raises Qs (eg should employees retrain on their own time?)
"How is started, how its going":
"How is started, how its going":
Ps @dgross03 is now on Twitter- follow him!