Lots of #footballindex issues at the moment, most of which have been picked over by more informed people than me. One I haven't seen discussed much is something I've been thinking about a lot, the dividend payout system.

@spfootballindex has raised this point before but as a result of the "orderbook" launch it's been on my mind. The all or nothing style of dividend payouts may not be fit for purpose anymore. In short volatile payouts, volatile platform and people seem to dislike volatility.

What I mean by this is that under the current payout system a 262 from Bruno can be worth 0p whilst a 263 from Eze on the same day is worth 28p. This makes it tricky to put values on PB scores.

For example Sancho's expected PB dividends (the value of his PB scores in implied wins) last season was 64p under these payouts he actually would have won 16p just through misfortune. With the same set of scores it's possible Sancho could have yielded over £1 in dividends or 0p.

That's using the example of a fairly predictable yielder too. If I expect a 27 year old to win an average of 14p a season in dividends and he's 30p that's a great deal. However the range of possible outcomes is huge. He could return his value in a single day or never win a penny.

Which means such players require extreme patience even if they are heavily underpriced vs expected return. Personally as a reasonable bettor I'm quite comfortable with waiting for a regression to the mean on such a player, however this is a market where most traders are not.

Equally footballer's careers are short. It's quite possible a 30p player never regresses to mean simply because the winning scores he puts up are so infrequent. Alternatively he could get fortunate on a couple of days and return 200% of his value in a month (Ramirez last season)

I think there can be a more suitable way for the platform to payout dividends. The large carrot worked when people were under the impression they could sell at any point. But now traders need a firmer grasp of value so a more easily projected yield is be required imo.

This is a structure I've put about 2 minutes thought into just for illustrative purposes and based upon the current matrix. I would envision PB position and star man wins to still exist but at a reduced rate. It's basically SMDP but with no 30 day limit and no deadline.

This type of payout facilitates trading across the market since every player should have a calculable yield independent of other influences (performance of other players, number of matches on days played). As such every player has their own PB gameday each time they play.

If we know mid table fullbacks can produce an underlying yield of 3-5p and there is a young left back pushing for a start at Osasuna people will trade him. This is good for FI themselves and makes the platform far more engaging for users. It allows trading of football.

Now for the less popular part, IPDs probably need to go. These could be a problem for FI now 70p of shares can be traded repeatedly at 14p. The userbase says they like IPD but there are simply not enough people willing to trade them at a value that makes sense to FI.

Having no deadline on the new SMDP style structure I've sketched replaces IPD in a more sustainable way. A goal is a big chunk of PB points and would go a long way to securing 2p or more in PB score payouts which can be earned after the fact.

It also makes a wider range of players more easily tradeable inplay. If a player hits a high PB score (even one without a goal) it's a greater entry or exit opportunity for traders than is offered post deadline at the moment on the majority of players. It stimulates trading.

Another unpopular point is that this system may not be compatible with the current PB matrix. The SMDP style system would probably lend itself towards a matrix which offers a greater separation between scores. Perhaps one that grades on a scale from 0-100 with 50 as the average.

I know people don't like change but if FI had left decisions
to the userbase we'd have never had PB outside the top 200 and look where that has taken us.

I think FI have seen this kind of issue and have attempted to remedy it a little with TOTM, which is well meaning but far too limited in scope and clearly hasn't changed trader mindsets. A rethink may be required.

It's difficult times for traders at the moment but FI has the potential to be a better, fairer way for 99% of people to bet on football. I feel that a better payout system would be a strong step towards unlocking that potential and making this thing the juggernaut it should be.

Yields are obviously superb but perhaps too abstract on for this userbase. This platform should be the greatest betting innovation since Betfair Exchange but it needs one big tweak to get there imo. Make wins more predictable, frequent and engaging. Let people trade footballers