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As we (hopefully) start a new government response to COVID-19 we need to recognize that economic impacts have hit far more people than disease & this likely explains strong opposition to lockdowns (even though disease, not lockdowns, is main cause of economic impacts)
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I've sometimes wondered why smart people can look at COVID-19 pandemic & only see economic impact & mostly discount public health impact.
Also I saw many stories about COVID-doubters being converted by becoming sick themselves (or having relative die).
Also I saw many stories about COVID-doubters being converted by becoming sick themselves (or having relative die).
So, if, for some, it takes 1st hand experience to believe COVID-19 public health impact, I wondered, how many people might have personally felt economic vs disease impact.
Perhaps others have already done the simple comparison, but I just did it recently & I found it striking.
COVID-19 Totals US
Cases: 10M
Hospitalizations: 500K
Deaths: 230K
https://covidtracking.com/data/national
Lost job or work: 50M ( https://www.bls.gov/cps/effects-of-the-coronavirus-covid-19-pandemic.htm)
COVID-19 Totals US
Cases: 10M
Hospitalizations: 500K
Deaths: 230K
https://covidtracking.com/data/national
Lost job or work: 50M ( https://www.bls.gov/cps/effects-of-the-coronavirus-covid-19-pandemic.htm)
Simple overall ratios for last 8 months in US:
100 people lost work for every 1 person hospitalized
200 people lost work for every 1 COVID-19 death
5 people lost work for every case (most of which are mild)
100 people lost work for every 1 person hospitalized
200 people lost work for every 1 COVID-19 death
5 people lost work for every case (most of which are mild)
In young adults patterns are even more stark due to 2x higher job losses ( https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2020/06/09/hispanic-women-immigrants-young-adults-those-with-less-education-hit-hardest-by-covid-19-job-losses/) & 100x lower death rates ( https://twitter.com/DiseaseEcology/status/1252844190070829056).
Thus:
20,000 16-24 yr olds lost work for each single COVID-19 death in that age
Thus:
20,000 16-24 yr olds lost work for each single COVID-19 death in that age
To be clear: I am NOT arguing that larger # of people impacted economically means we should let virus run wild. Doing so would cause MORE economic damage, not less.
I am suggesting we need to recognize this disparity in communicating with public & support those out of work.
I am suggesting we need to recognize this disparity in communicating with public & support those out of work.
We need to recognize that so many people are suffering economically & see lockdowns as cause rather than pandemic itself. If we can offer path to limit epidemic w/ least severe lockdowns & support those impacted we will have wider support.
I believe an alternative to lockdowns, which I described way back in June, is still the best way forward & there are some new tools (rapid testing) that can help. https://twitter.com/DiseaseEcology/status/1272271134696673281
Biggest impediments to public health approaches (test-contact trace-isolate/quarantine) are providing easy fast testing & strong support (space, $$) for those that need to isolate & communicating overall strategy to public. I hope these are focus of new COVID-19 task force.
Addendum: just learned that # people ever hospitalized data is incomplete, so ratios for that comparison above are off by 2x. This thread gives more detail:
https://twitter.com/DiseaseEcology/status/1325883310799646720
So, only ~50 people lost work for every 1 hospitalized. Still large, but not as big as 100:1.
https://twitter.com/DiseaseEcology/status/1325883310799646720
So, only ~50 people lost work for every 1 hospitalized. Still large, but not as big as 100:1.