I’m having those rough conversations with friends and loved ones again about how tougher times are returning.

Bad as they were, these last months were the respite.

We never got COVID under control, and now winter is here. Time to batten down the hatches.

The Sunbelt surge is looking like the preview of a longer, bigger, more widespread surge.

Even with improved treatments improving fatality rates, this is so, so many severely sick people.

And this is coming very, very fast. It’s to wrap your head around this kind of growth.

When will it stop? No one can say.

Here in Northern California, we’ve been good. But we’ve also been lucky.

We shouldn’t be overly confident that what we’ve all been doing is all that will be required this winter.

Wisconsin, the Dakotas, and El Paso are very clear signs that this virus is still deadly, even with our increased medical knowledge and new treatments.

https://kfoxtv.com/news/coronavirus/el-paso-moves-to-10-mobile-morgues-for-covid-19-deaths-as-judge-wants-to-extend-shutdown

For us, we are forgoing all family holiday plans. We’re zeroing out non-essential retail outings. We’ll probably start lightly stocking up on things.

In the Bay, it’s not time to hit the button, but ... it’s time to get ready to be able to hit the button.

I have hope. The vaccines will help. Treatments will keep getting better. The Biden-Harris administration will at the very least take the virus seriously and put good people in play.

But these next few months could be very tough. https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/status/1313879257202995200

And, of course, the disease burden will not fall equally on everyone. Latin communities are being hit very hard all over the country. Like Kansas, for example: https://twitter.com/samhorwich/status/1325695195732570113

(And believe me, I am as tired of it all as everyone else. And yet...)