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Fellow Manitobans:
In recent weeks we have experienced a dramatic surge in Covid-19 cases which threatens to overwhelm our hospitals. ICUs and medical units in Wpg acute care hospitals are struggling to keep up. Health care workers and leaders are adapting to the surge. Yet
1/x
In recent weeks we have experienced a dramatic surge in Covid-19 cases which threatens to overwhelm our hospitals. ICUs and medical units in Wpg acute care hospitals are struggling to keep up. Health care workers and leaders are adapting to the surge. Yet
1/x
many important questions are being asked as we adapt to new lockdown measures to slow / halt the spread of the virus:
1. how bad is getting the infection anyway?
2. is the pain, financial, mental burden of a lockdown worth the benefit?
3. how long will it be like this?
2/x
1. how bad is getting the infection anyway?
2. is the pain, financial, mental burden of a lockdown worth the benefit?
3. how long will it be like this?
2/x
Want to start by saying I do not have all the answers. Doctors often shy away from controversy and uncertainty, concerned we will come across wishy washy or that the public will not understand nuance. But I think its more important to be honest. I'll do my best here.
3/x
3/x
#1. Covid-19 disease is bad. Overall, approximately 0.5% or 1 in 200 of infected will die. That's lower than predicted because 50% of people infected with Covid-19 have no or very mild symptoms and were not counted initially, but much worse than seasonal flu virus infection.
4/x
4/x
But, this doesn't tell the whole story:
-people over the age of 65-70 have at least a 10-fold higher risk of dying
-pre-existing medical conditions also increase risk
-many people who do not die will suffer long-term effects like crippling fatigue or trouble breathing
5/x
-people over the age of 65-70 have at least a 10-fold higher risk of dying
-pre-existing medical conditions also increase risk
-many people who do not die will suffer long-term effects like crippling fatigue or trouble breathing
5/x
#2 The adverse impacts of 'lockdown' are clearly also very bad. The first societal shutdown profoundly impacted us financially and emotionally and has had many downstream effects we are only coming to grasp. Further, it affected marginalized groups like the homeless more.
6/x
6/x
One might rationally question whether the lockdown was/is truly worth it. We have to acknowledge some uncertainty here. The effects of financial and mental anguish on our health are not to be underestimated. I worry about the people and businesses who are getting left behind.
7/x
7/x
The risks of leaving the SARS-CoV2 virus to continue to spread on our society, however, are more clear. Our healthcare system can and will be quickly overwhelmed. This means many may not be able to obtain needed care even if they have a non-Covid-19 serious medical issue.
8/x
8/x
A hard lockdown such as occurred in the Spring will allow us to bring viral transmission down dramatically. It becomes much easier to do effective testing, contact tracing and our health care capacity can cope. Re-opening the economy and society carefully becomes feasible.
9/x
9/x
There are also financial and other downstream societal risks to leaving the virus spread unchecked. While I am not an economist or a social scientist however, it seems clear that the quickest way for countries to begin to recover their economy is by controlling viral spread.
10/x
10/x
#3 It's unclear how long we'll need to live with a threat of further restrictions or lockdowns to slow or prevent viral spread. 6-8 months is my best guess, given current progress on an effective and safe vaccine. It will not be like this forever.
We will get through this.
11/x
We will get through this.
11/x
In the meantime, let's be creative and find ways to stay together while staying apart.
-Go for walks outside, with friends socially distanced
-Host a virtual cribbage tournament with your family
-Do whatever to stay connected through technology
12/x
-Go for walks outside, with friends socially distanced
-Host a virtual cribbage tournament with your family
-Do whatever to stay connected through technology
12/x
Finally let's be honest with each other about what we do and do not know about our current situation. We can and will get through this together.
/fin
@JillianHortonMD @Lauren_J_MacK @KindrachukJason @bkives @ScottBilleck @rk_thorpe @EstherKim126 @GRDrobot @CBCMarina @sanijlee
/fin
@JillianHortonMD @Lauren_J_MacK @KindrachukJason @bkives @ScottBilleck @rk_thorpe @EstherKim126 @GRDrobot @CBCMarina @sanijlee
