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Long thread!
I think the time has come for me, a random moron who knows nothing about epidemiology, to put my cards on the table. After following very closely, and perhaps too intensely, the Covid-19 pandemic over the past 8 months, this is my hunch of what might happen next. 1/
I think the time has come for me, a random moron who knows nothing about epidemiology, to put my cards on the table. After following very closely, and perhaps too intensely, the Covid-19 pandemic over the past 8 months, this is my hunch of what might happen next. 1/
As I said, I’m no expert, just an interested citizen who’s formed an opinion listening to and reading more educated people than I. Therefore, take what I’m tweeting with not a pinch, but a shipload of salt, and please forgive me if what I think will turn out to be wrong. 2/
(In my defense, I’m not advising any government or institution.)
I think that, in Europe, the second covid-19 wave is at or near its peak. We should see a leveling off of cases around now and over the next couple of weeks, depending on location. 3/
I think that, in Europe, the second covid-19 wave is at or near its peak. We should see a leveling off of cases around now and over the next couple of weeks, depending on location. 3/
should see its hospitalization peak sometime in the next week/10 days, with about 450 patients in ICU. 
’s will be later, in about 3-4 weeks, with ~350-450 ICU patients. The 
’s will be in the next 10 days, with numbers comparable to the spring wave. 4/
should see its peak in about 10 days/2 weeks, with numbers similar or perhaps slightly lower than in the spring.We may see a third “wavelet” in February or March 2021, especially in those countries that have been relatively spared in 2020. (Thinking of
, 
, 
, 
...) 5/
At countrywide level, we should see a Herd Immunity Threshold kick in at ~25% of pop. infected, with an overshoot leading to ~40-50% of pop. infected in 2020/21.
Worldwide I think it plausible that 3 to 6 million people will have died of Covid-19 during its pandemic phase. 6/
Worldwide I think it plausible that 3 to 6 million people will have died of Covid-19 during its pandemic phase. 6/
The IFR should be estimated to be in the range of 0.2-0.7%, with possibly significant outliers at either end. This would place the 2020 pandemic in the range of the 1957 H2N2 Asian flu pandemic.
As I said, I’m just a moron, with no background in epidemiology or biostatistics. 7/
As I said, I’m just a moron, with no background in epidemiology or biostatistics. 7/
Therefore, if I am wrong, and there’s a very high chance I may be wrong!, please cut me some slack!
I want to thank some people who have stimulated me during this nightmare of a year, helped keep my mind sane when I thought I was losing hope and challenged me when necessary. 8/
I want to thank some people who have stimulated me during this nightmare of a year, helped keep my mind sane when I thought I was losing hope and challenged me when necessary. 8/
Even if we didn’t interact directly, their tweets and conversations with others have made me think! They are @BallouxFrancois, @ProcessNamed, @timmokx, @WilliamBHoenig, @skepticalzebra, @slwirth, @sdbaral, @AndrejBolkonsk1, @mgmgomes1, @RebeccaChandle1, @JacobGudiol. 9/
These have all come across as balanced, respectful, and helpful people. We may not know each other, but THANK YOU for your work and willingness to share your knowledge and opinions. It has made a difference. 10/10
