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Here's what the hell is going on right now, I think. A thread.
FOX and AP called AZ on election night. Others didn't. Perhaps AP and FOX knew the whole picture, or maybe they jumped the gun. But it's causing a huge problem. 2/
There are 174K slightly Trump-leaning votes still to be counted and Biden has a 29K lead. He lost ~7K from ~70K votes, so you'd expect him to lose ~17K more. Biden would lead by 12K. Small, but a real lead. Why not call it? 3/
Because it's really close. And over in NV, Biden's lead is ~20K+ and growing with every new release, unlike in AZ, where it's shrinking. NV is going for Biden easily. So why not call *it?" 4/
Because AZ+NV gives Biden 270. So. Calling AZ officially (for those who haven't) and NV is the ballgame. And AZ is pretty close. So. Pause, make sure AZ lead holds up. 5/
Can't call GA, with a ~4K lead and obvious recount coming. Plus military/other left. So. Can't call that, because that gives Biden 269 and at least a tie. It's a consequential call! Can't do it. Too scared. 6/
And now the real problem: PA. Sometime ago we knew that the outstanding mail ballots would be like 75/25 for Biden. Trump had a big lead but it was a mirage. Every 100K nets Biden 50K, so, we do simple math. At one point the SoS says: there are 560K votes left. 7/
That's minimum 250-280K for Biden. He was down by 120 at the time. Biden will win by ~130-150K. Call the race! 8/
Except hang on, because a second later the report is: there are ~360K mail votes left. 200K of them vanished. Why? Old data? Outdated report? Who knows. (There has been an infuriating lack of good up-to-the-second data on PA outstanding votes.) 9/
But whatever. 360K with 75/25 splits still nets Biden ~180K+ -- he's down by 115. He still wins easily, just by ~60K or so instead of ~160. Call the race! 10/
Except hang on, because all of a sudden, at noon today, we hear: there are also 100K PROVISIONAL BALLOTS. No one had mentioned those before. No one thought that might be something worth knowing. So how do provisional ballots work, in terms of splits? We don't really know. 11/
They might be roughly along the lines of the counties they're cast in. They might be lean Biden, or lean Trump. They might be heavily lean Trump, because Trump spent 6 months screaming about mail ballots and they're all Trump voters who got scared. 12/
Either way, we at one point had a sure-fire 180K Biden win...that became a surefire ~60K Biden win...that became a ~60K Biden lead...with 100K in a black box that no one can really predict with any great accuracy. 13/
If those provisional ballots somehow broke, say, 80-20 for Trump, he'd eat away at the entire theoretical 60K Biden lead and it'd be a tie. There's no evidence they would, but could they? It's fucking 2020. Who the hell knows. 14/
So before they can call PA, they need to get a big statewide sample of those provisionals -- maybe 10-20 K, in amounts roughly equal to the % represented in Red and Blue counties. If they're a wash, or lean Biden, it's over. They call it. 15/
If they're lean Trump, they need to know if what margins they lean Trump --51-49? 60-40? -- and then they need to know *exactly how big Biden's lead will be* after all the 75-25 Biden mail ballots are counted. Then they do the math, and they call it. Or don't.
PA gives Biden the election. Can't call it until they know. AZ+NV same thing: can't call it until they *know* AZ. NV+GA same thing: can't call that because of razor-thin GA margins. They can't even call NV, because FOX/AP AZ call, which would force FOX/AP to call election.
They're stymied. Yes, they like the theater, but they're also facing unknowns in PA and AZ, and a known miniature lead in GA. NV would've been called ages ago, as all the remaining mail-ins will pad Biden's lead. But that call ends it for two outlets.
Basically, we are in limbo until (a) PA provisional ballots prove not to help Trump, or (b) AZ dumps a ton more ballots and the pace at which Trump eats away at Biden's 29K lead are clearly falling short. Until one of those things happens, nothing will.
My guess is, when one happens, they all will, kind of. If they call PA, they'll immediately call NV because it'll be irrelevant. The ones who haven't might even call AZ because it seems unlikely Trump catches up. GA they may not call until the recount, because it won't matter.
This is all a long and now no-longer-numbered thread to say if we had a clearer picture of how many ballots were out in PA, and which kinds they were, a long time ago, we would've known not to expect a call all day today. The fact that we didn't? Like, why not tell us?
I assume it's because if they told us, we wouldn't need to watch their coverage. Which we've all been doing. And it's annoying. The transparency on the process of counting has been good, but the networks (and SoS's) have blown it a few times w/r/t clear data on what's left.
See you tomorrow, when for all I know we'll suddenly find out there are 70K as yet unknown provisional ballots cast in Wyoming that might give Biden a fighting chance.
